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中国沙漠 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 210-219.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00127

• • 上一篇    

基于Budyko假设的党河径流变化归因

梁鹏飞1(), 辛惠娟1(), 李宗省1,2(), 南富森3, 唐彪1, 张文豹1   

  1. 1.兰州交通大学 环境与市政工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
    2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 高寒山区同位素生态水文与国家公园观测站/甘肃省祁连山生态环境研究中心/内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
    3.西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-10 修回日期:2022-09-30 出版日期:2023-05-20 发布日期:2023-05-31
  • 通讯作者: 辛惠娟,李宗省
  • 作者简介:李宗省(E-mail: lizxhhs@163.com
    辛惠娟(E-mail: xinhj642@163.com
    梁鹏飞(1998—),男,甘肃会宁人,硕士研究生,主要从事寒旱区水文与水资源等方面的研究。E-mail: liangpf0113@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金区域发展联合基金重点项目(U22A20592);国家重点研发计划项目专题(2020YFA0607702);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目专题(2019QZKK0405);兰州交通大学校青年基金项目(2018005);甘肃省黄河水环境重点实验室开放基金项目(21YRWEG005)

Study on the attribution of runoff variation in the Danghe River based on the Budyko hypothesis

Pengfei Liang1(), Huijuan Xin1(), Zongxing Li1,2(), Fusen Nan3, Biao Tang1, Wenbao Zhang1   

  1. 1.School of Environment and Municipal Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China
    2.Observation and Research Station of Eco-Hydrology and National Park by Stable Isotope Tracing in Alpine Region / Gansu Qilian Mountains Ecology Research Center / Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
    3.College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China
  • Received:2022-08-10 Revised:2022-09-30 Online:2023-05-20 Published:2023-05-31
  • Contact: Huijuan Xin,Zongxing Li

摘要:

流域水资源变化特征及其归因识别一直是水文研究的重要科学问题。本文以党河流域为研究区,采用线性倾向估计等方法分析了流域气象、下垫面和水文要素变化特征,基于Budyko水热耦合平衡方程量化了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明:(1)流域内气温呈升高趋势,降水呈增加趋势,气候向暖湿化方向发展;(2)林地、草地、耕地、水域和建设用地面积增加,未利用地面积缩减;冰川退缩速率为3.86 km2·a-1;多年平均最大冻结深度平均递减速率为1.14 cm·a-1;(3)党河径流年际递增速率为0.21亿m3/10a,年内分配为“双峰型”,降水和气温对径流年内变化贡献分别为57.2%和42.8%,气候变化和人类活动对径流变化贡献分别为59.46%和40.54%。

关键词: 党河, 气候变化, 径流, 归因分析, Budyko假设

Abstract:

The characteristics of watershed water resources changes and their attribution identification have been important scientific problems in hydrological research. we analyzed the characteristics of meteorological, subsurface and hydrological elements changes using methods such as linear propensity estimation, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes based on based on Budyko hypothesis in Danghe River basin. The results show that the temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend, and the climate developed toward the direction of warming and humidification. The area of forestland, grassland, arable land, water area and construction land increased while the area of unused land decreased; the glacier retreat rate was -3.86 km2·yr-1; the average decrease rate of the annual average maximum freezing depth was -1.14 cm·yr-1. The interannual increasing rate of runoff was 0.21×108 m3/10yr, and the intra-annual distribution of runoff depicted a double-peak effect, the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the annual variation of runoff were 57.2% and 42.8%, respectively, and the contributions of climate change and human activities to the annual variation of runoff were 59.46% and 40.54%, respectively. The results of the study can provide a reference for the scientific management and optimal allocation of water resources in Danghe River basin.

Key words: Danghe River, climate change, runoff, attribution analysis, Budyko hypothesis

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