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中国沙漠 ›› 2007, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 593-599.

• 生物土壤与生态 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆三工河绿洲土地利用变化系统动力学仿真

汤发树1, 2, 陈 曦1, 罗格平1*, 蔺 卿1, 2, 李照杰3, 赫 静4   

  1. 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 2.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039; 3.乌鲁木齐市城市规划管理局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830063; 4.中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2006-01-19 修回日期:2006-03-16 出版日期:2007-07-20 发布日期:2007-07-20

Simulation on Landuse Change in Sangonghe Oasis of Xinjiang by System Dynamics

TANG Fa-shu1,2, CHEN Xi1, LUO Ge-ping1, LIN Qing1,2, LI Zhao-jie3, HE Jing4   

  1. 1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2.The Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100039, China; 3.Urumqi Urban Planning Bureau, Urumqi 830063, China; 4.College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2006-01-19 Revised:2006-03-16 Online:2007-07-20 Published:2007-07-20

摘要:

从小区域(乡域)尺度出发,综合考虑人口、经济、技术、市场等主要人文因素对绿洲土地利用变化的驱动作用,建立系统动力学(SD)模型,并以天山北麓三工河流域为例,用1978—1998年的实际数据验证了模型的适用性和可靠性,在此基础上,模拟和分析了三种发展模式下本区域1998—2050年土地利用变化过程,结果表明:SD方法对于乡域尺度的土地利用变化研究是适宜的;三种模式下土地利用变化规律表现出明显的差异性,人口、经济、技术、市场等因素对本区域土地利用变化具有显著驱动作用。

关键词: 土地利用, 驱动力, 系统动力学, 三工河绿洲

Abstract: A system dynamics(SD) model of landuse change based on small regional scale (villages and towns) was established synthetically considering such human driving forces as population, economy, technology and market, etc. The applicability and reliability of the model was proved by the actual data of 1978-1998 from the Sangonghe river at the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, on the basis of it, the temporal series of landuse change under three developing modes from 1998 to 2050 was simulated and the related driving action was analyzed. The result indicated that ①the SD approach is applicable to simulate landuse change at township scale; ②land use change under three developing modes are obviously different, and the factors of population, economy, technology and market have prominent driving effect on landuse change in the region.

Key words: landuse, driving force, system dynamics, Sangonghe Oasis

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