关键词: 黑河流域, 降水量, 时空分布, 气候变化

Abstract:

The inter-annual climate change characteristics and the cause of drought in Heihe river basin were analyzed based on the observation data such as ground temperature and precipitation of the 13 weather stations in 1960—2006. The results showed that, influenced by topography, altitude and the different scales of the atmospheric circulation, the precipitation distribution in this basin is uneven, being more in the southeast and less in the northwest. But the rainy days distribution is consist with the geographical distribution. In order to rationally allocate the water resources, a precipitation forecast system was set up for the Heihe river basin in 2000. The forecasting accuracy of this system for the coming 24 to 48 hours precipitation was tested by the TS analysis. It was proved that the system has strong forecasting capability, and the weather forecast products have important reference value in weather service, also it can be certainly taken as the foundation for the future refinement forecast work.

Key words: Heihe river basin, precipitation, spatial and temporal distribution, climate change