气候变化对6种荒漠动物分布的潜在影响

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析气候变化对动物分布的影响,对气候变化影响下保护生物多样性具有重要的意义。利用CART(classification and regression tree,分类和回归树)模型,采用A2和B2气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对鹅猴羚（柴达木亚种）、鹅猴羚（南疆亚种）、草原斑猫、蒙古野驴、石貂和野骆驼适宜分布范围及空间分布格局影响。结果显示,气候变化下,这些动物目前适宜分布范围将缩小,到2081—2100年时段,鹅猴羚（南疆亚种）、草原斑猫和蒙古野驴变化幅度最大,鹅猴羚（柴达木亚种）、石貂和野骆驼次之。另外,从1991—2020年时段到2081—2100年时段,鹅猴羚（柴达木亚种）、石貂和野骆驼新适宜及总适宜分布范围随时间段呈增加趋势,其他动物这些范围呈现减小的趋势。蒙古野驴目前适宜分布区西部、北部、南部和东南部一些区域将不适宜,新适宜分布范围将向青海西北部和西藏西部扩展;鹅猴羚（南疆亚种）适宜分布区极大破碎化,新适宜范围在新疆西部、北部及昆仑山呈零星分布;草原斑猫目前适宜区南部、西部和东部一些区域将不适宜,新适宜分布范围将向目前适宜分布区西部、北部、南部扩展;其他动物主要是目前适宜分布区南部及东南部一些区域不适宜,新适宜分布区将向目前分布区西部、西北和北部扩展。这些动物适宜分布范围变化与我国年均气温和降水量变化相关性不一致,多数物种相关性较低,并且这些物种适宜分布范围没有随年均气温变化和降水量变化而线性改变,多数物种回归关系决定系数较小。结果说明,气候变化背景下,近期将使这些动物适宜分布范围减少,新适宜分布范围增加,分布空间格局改变。

关键词: 濒危动物, 气候变化, CART模型, 空间分布格局

Abstract: It is crucial to understand the effects of climate change on change of species distribution for the conservation of biodiversity. The effects of climate change on change of distribution of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa reginae adlerberg), Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford), Wild Cat (Felis silvestris schreber), Asiatic Wild Ass (Equus hemionus(pallas), Stone Marten (Martes foina(erxleben) and Camelus Bactrianus (Camelus bactrianus linnaeus) in China were analyzed by use of the CART (classification and regression tree) niche model under climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results show that climate change will cause decrease in the current distribution region of the animals. In 2081—2100, the decrease of current distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa reginae adlerberg),Wild Cat or Asiatic Wild Ass was the highest, while the decrease of current distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford), Stone Marten or Camelus Bactrianus was lower than that of Goitred Gazelle, Wild Cat or Asiatic Wild Ass. The new suitable distribution region or total suitable distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella Subgutturosa Reginae Adlerberg), Stone Marten or Camelus Bactrianus increases from 1991—2020 to 2081—2100, while that of other animals will decrease from 1991—2020 to 2081—2100. Additionally, following climate change, the western or northern or south-eastern regions of current suitable distribution of Asiatic Wild Ass would reduce, and new suitable regions would expand towards north-western Qinghai or western Tibet; and the current suitable distribution regions of Goitred Gazelle (gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford) will be fragmented greatly, and new suitable regions would expand scattered towards west or northern Xinjiang or KunLun Mountains; and south or east or west regions of current suitable distribution of Wild Cat will reduce and fragment, and new suitable regions would expand towards western or northern or southern current distribution of the animals; and south or south-east regions of current suitable distribution of other animals would reduce, while new suitable regions would expand towards west or north-west regions of current distribution of these animals. Additionally, following climate change, the change of suitable distribution region of the animals was not consistently related with change of annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China, and the change in current distribution region, suitable distribution region or total distribution region of many animals was poorly related with change in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China, and the suitable distribution region of many animals was not linearly changed with change of the annual mean air temperature and precipitation in China, and the determined coefficient of the linear regression correlation between the change of many animals distribution and annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in China was not high. The results indicate that climate change will cause decrease in the current distribution region of the animals in the future, while it will cause expansion of suitable distribution region or total distribution region of the animals, and it will also cause change in spatial distribution pattern of the animals.

Key words: endangered animal, climate change, CART model, spatial distribution pattern

中图分类号:

Q958.112

吴建国;周巧富. 气候变化对6种荒漠动物分布的潜在影响[J]. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(2): 464-475.

WU Jian-guo;ZHOU Qiao-fu. Potential Effect of Climate Change on Distribution of 6 Desert Animals in China[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2011, 31(2): 464-475.

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