风沙灾害风险评估研究进展

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2017.00074

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 风沙灾害是气象灾害的重要组成部分，具有影响范围大、季节性强、灾害损失大等特点，已成为中国北方沙区的生态灾难，严重影响人居环境和社会经济的可持续发展。为了评估风沙灾害对中国社会经济的影响，已有学者对中国风沙灾害问题进行了长期研究，但对区域风沙灾害风险系统评估研究相对较少，尚未建立系统的风沙灾害风险评价体系。在综合分析近30年相关文献的基础上，借鉴其他自然灾害评估方法，从风沙灾害风险评估理论内涵、评估指标及评估方法等方面对相关研究进行了全面的分析，指出目前风沙灾害风险评估还存在理论不完善、评估模型不合理、孕灾环境指标量化不细致和指标体系繁杂、风险评估方法单一、指标分级和权重计算的主观性强、社会经济数据不能空间化等问题。因此，未来在风沙灾害评估研究时需借鉴、引入和融合其他自然灾害风险评估理论和技术方法，综合近年来在风沙物理学、风沙地貌学、防沙治沙工程学、沙漠化遥感技术和理论等方面的成果，建立多指标的综合风沙灾害评估模型，为预防区域风沙灾害、降低风沙灾害损失和保障"一带一路"经济发展提供理论依据。

关键词: 风沙灾害, 风险评估, 指标, 分类

Abstract: Aeolian disaster is one of the meteorological disasters, which has characteristics of large affecting area, high seasonality and serious disaster lose. Aeolian disaster is an ecological disaster for north desert region and even to the southeast coast regions of China, and seriously affects local people living environment and socioeconomic development. In recent years, in order to assess the impact of aeolian disaster on China's socio-economic development, the researchers had done some studies on the aeolian disaster, however, there is little research on regional aeolian disaster risk assessment and had not built a systematic aeolian disaster risk assessment system. In order to comprehensively understand the current situation of aeolian disaster risk assessment, the published literatures in nearly 30 years had been used as a reference. The aeolian disaster risk assessment theoretical connotation, the assessment indexes and the methods had been analyzed. The results showed that the theories and models of aeolian disaster risk assessment were not perfect, the selection of the pregnant environment factors was not accurate and complex, the risk assessment methods were simple, and so on. Therefore, to improve aeolian disaster risk assessment, the new theories and methods of other natural disaster assessment must be introduced to aeolian disaster risk assessment in future, meanwhile, the aeolian physics, aeolian geomorphology, aeolian pretention and desertification remote sensing methods must be considered.

Key words: aeolian disaster, risk assessment, index, classification

中图分类号:

P429

管梦鸾, 张正偲, 董治宝. 风沙灾害风险评估研究进展[J]. 中国沙漠, 2018, 38(5): 978-988.

Guan Mengluan, Zhang Zhengcai, Dong Zhibao. Progresses on the Research of Aeolian Disaster Risk Assessment[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2018, 38(5): 978-988.

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