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中国沙漠 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 792-799.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00049

• 水文与水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化特征及预测对比

米热古力·艾尼瓦尔1, 海米提·依米提2,3, 麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜2,3, 夏库热·塔依尔2,3, Yorov Hasan2,3   

  1. 1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;
    2. 新疆师范大学 新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    3. 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-08 修回日期:2014-04-09 出版日期:2015-05-20 发布日期:2015-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 海米提·依米提(Email:yimith@yahoo.com)
  • 作者简介:米热古力·艾尼瓦尔(1987-), 女(维吾尔族), 新疆库车人, 博士研究生, 主要从事干旱区水资源与生态环境研究。Email:mihray87@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(U1138302,41201032);国家国际科技合作项目(2010DFA92720-28)

Comparison on the Annual Water Level Variations and Prediction between the Bosten Lake and the Issyk-Kul Lake

Mihrigul Anwar1, Hamid Yimit2,3, Mamattursun Eziz2,3, Shakure Tahir2,3, Yorov Hasan2,3   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
    2. Xinjiang Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China;
    3. College of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China
  • Received:2014-02-08 Revised:2014-04-09 Online:2015-05-20 Published:2015-05-20

摘要:

根据1961-2012年湖泊水位观测资料,采用时间序列线性趋势分析与小波分析法,对比研究了博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖近50多年来水位变化特征,并对湖泊未来水位变化趋势进行预测。结果显示:(1)1961-2012年,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位总体呈显著的下降趋势。20世纪80年代中期之前,两湖水位变化趋势基本一致,都平稳下降;90年代后,博斯腾湖水位变化波动比伊塞克湖更为频繁,经历了迅速上升和下降的阶段,而伊塞克湖年水位较为稳定。(2)水位小波分析结果表明,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位变化分别存在18 a和22 a的主周期,从水位未来变化趋势预测结果来看,博斯腾湖水位将来一段时间继续下降,伊塞克湖水位则继续上升。

关键词: 博斯腾湖, 伊塞克湖, 水位, 小波分析, 对比分析

Abstract:

Based on the observation data of lake water level from 1961 to 2012, using time series linear trend analysis and wavelet analysis, comparative study Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul nearly 50 years water level change characteristics and predictive analysis the lake water level future trends. The results show that: ①from 1961 to 2012, Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul annual water level shows a significant decline trend. Before the mid-1980s, the two lakes water level almost the same change trend, all steady decline. After the 1990s, Bosten Lake water level change fluctuation more frequent than the Issyk-Kul, has experienced rapid rise and fall stages, but the Issyk-Kul water level is relatively stable. ②wavelet analysis results show that, Bosten Lake and Issyk-Kul annual water level presence 18-a and 22-a primary period. According to the water level future change trend forecast results, In future for a period of time Bosten Lake water level continued to decline, Issyk-Kul lake water level continued to rise.

Key words: Bosten Lake, Issyk-Kul Lake, water level, wavelet analysis, comparative analysis

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