img

官方微信

高级检索

中国沙漠 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 355-359.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

西北春季区域性沙尘天气MOS预报方法探讨

叶燕华1,2, 王平鲁2   

  1. 1. 南京气象学院 大气科学系, 江苏 南京 210044;
    2. 兰州市气象局, 甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 收稿日期:2003-01-15 修回日期:2003-04-23 出版日期:2004-06-20 发布日期:2004-06-20
  • 作者简介:叶燕华(1972-),女(汉族),福建南安人,在读硕士,主要从事天气气候预报研究。E-mail:52889_19@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    科技部项目《西北干旱区沙尘暴预警、服务系统研究》03专题资助

MOS Forecasting Method for Regional Sand-Dust Weather during Spring in Northwest China

YE Yan-hua1,2, WANG Ping-lu2   

  1. 1. Department of Atomospheric Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China;
    2. Lanzhou Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Received:2003-01-15 Revised:2003-04-23 Online:2004-06-20 Published:2004-06-20

摘要: 使用T106数值预报产品建立了西北地区春季短期沙尘天气预报方程, 提出对小概率事件的MOS预报方法的改良办法, 结果表明, 通过天气分型及天气事件等级划分的方法可以修正沙尘天气的概率分布, 使得用MOS方法制作的沙尘天气的预报结果能够达到较好的效果。

关键词: 沙尘天气, MOS方法, 短期预报

Abstract: The T106 NWP Products were used to set up the short-range forecasting equations for regional sand-dust weather during spring in Northwest China. The MOS Method for weather incidents with little probability was improved. Ways of differentiating weather types and grading weather incidents may be used to modify the probability consistency of sand-dust weather, which can make the effect of forecasting sand-dust weather used the MOS Method better.

Key words: sand-dust weather, MOS Method, short-range forecast

中图分类号: