关键词: 吐鲁番盆地, 气候变化, 水资源

Abstract: The study of the impacts of global change on the regional sustainable development is one of the important issues for the scientific researches.A great progress for the global and large region scale have been achieved,but for the smaller region,for lack of available information and poor accuracy of the models,the study is difficult in some extent.Tupan Basin is a intermontane basin with extreme arid climate,which is sensitive for the global change.This paper collected historical,dendrochronological and instrument measured information on the historical climate change,and approached to the law and the trend of climate change in the basin.Some important results were got:(1) The study of the climate change in Turpan Basin and its adjacent area shows that the periods of West Han(202-0 B.C.),Sui and Tang(580-960 A.C.),and Qing Dynasty(1640-1910 A.C.) are the periods with more precipitation and lower temperature.Before 1860 the main climate was "warm-dry" and "cool-wet",after that it become "warm-wet" and "cool-dry".(2) The sudden change of temperature are evident inside and at the edge of the basin where almost no human activities in the recent 40 years.It was a higher temperature period in 1950's to the early 1960's,then it become cool in the period of the middle 1960's to 1970's,after that the temperature rose quickly.The higher temperature reached its top point in the year of 1989,after that it shows a trend of gradually decreasing.(3) The variation of the precipitation is more complex for the basin.Generally speaking,the precipitation has a trend of slight decrease inside of the basin and increase on the edge of the basin in the recent 40 years.(4) The aridity trend in Turpan Basin began in the late of Pleistocene Period and develops more and more strong after that.Turpan Basin is in a warm and dry period in a 10000 year scale and in a warm wet stage in a 100 year scale,and the temperature fluctuates at a 10 year scale.(5) It is foresighted that the period of temperature rising which started from the beginning of 1980's will reach its end in 2020's,the temperature will rise 2~2.5℃ inside the basin and about 1℃ in the high mountain area around the basin in the next 20~30 years;the maximum increasing of the precipitation will reach about 18%.(6) The main impacts of the climate change on the river flow are:the general amount of the runoff will possibly increase,but the variation(seasonally and annually) will become larger,especially for the rivers on the north side of the basin,which will bring difficulty to the water using.

Key words: Turpan Basin, climate change, impact on water resources