The Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disaster Loss and Response to Climate Warming in Gansu, China

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00178

JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 767-776.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00178

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The Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disaster Loss and Response to Climate Warming in Gansu, China

Han Lanying^1,2,3, Zhang Qiang^1,2, Zhao Hongyan³, Huang Tao³, Jia Jianying³, Zhang Xudong³

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
3. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China

Received:2015-06-04 Revised:2015-07-15 Online:2016-05-20 Published:2016-05-20

Abstract

Abstract:

The food production and food security will face the severe challenge under the climate warming, with the characteristics of increased frequency and intensity of drought, climate change result in an increase on agricultural production risk. In this paper, we calculated the drought-induced rate, drought-occurred rate, no harvest rate and comprehensive agricultural loss rate, constructed a comprehensive agriculture drought risk index-agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate based on the drought disaster data from1960 to 2012, analyzed the risk characteristics of the agricultural loss caused by drought. The results showed that the drought scope, extent and frequency have an increasing trend in Gansu Province for nearly 50 years. The drought-induced rate, drought-occurred rate, no harvest rate and comprehensive agricultural loss rate showed a clear upward trend, especially after the 1990s, the trend of the drought frequency and intensity increased is clear. The drought-induced rate,drought-occurred rate, no harvest rate and comprehensive agricultural loss rate were higher than the national average. The average comprehensive loss rate is two times for the national average (5.1%). The comprehensive agriculture drought risk increases with decreasing precipitation, but increases with increasing air temperature, and the comprehensive agriculture drought risk are highly relevant with air temperature and precipitation. Air temperature and precipitation is a major factor caused drought disaster reduction, as well as regional water resources, exacerbated by drought losses and risks. About 6.45 ℃ and 460 mm are the critical value of the high drought risk. Under future climate change scenarios, comprehensive risk will increase 1.85 times in the end of the century. Climate change will lead to higher drought risk

Key words: agriculture drought, disaster loss, drought risk, climate change

CLC Number:

P426.616

Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Zhao Hongyan, Huang Tao, Jia Jianying, Zhang Xudong. The Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disaster Loss and Response to Climate Warming in Gansu, China[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2016, 36(3): 767-776.

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The Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disaster Loss and Response to Climate Warming in Gansu, China

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