Abstract:

The interannual variation of carbon emissions and the reduction pathways at the provincial level are important to formulate carbon reduction measures and achieve the "goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality （dual carbon goals）". By conducting jointly LMDI， correlation， and decoupling analysis， this study takes Ningxia， a typical arid province in Northwest China， as an example， and analyse the multi-year changes of carbon emissions， the influencing factors and the emission reduction pathways. The results show that （1） the annual carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita and per unit area of Ningxia are all increasing with year， while the carbon emission intensity shows a fluctuating trend of first rising， then falling and then rising again. （2） GDP and energy intensity are the main influencing factors on the increase in annual carbon emissions， while energy structure and energy intensity have a dampening effect on the growth of carbon emissions. （3） It is found that the ten high-emission industries mainly use energy such as raw coal， which has a low calorific value and high carbon emissions， which has resulted in Ningxia's carbon emissions still not being decoupled from GDP， but the number of decoupled sectors is increasing. This study uses various indicators such as annual carbon emissions， carbon intensity and carbon emissions per capita and per unit area to serve the purposes of carbon peak attainment， industrial structure optimisation and carbon equity. Based on the main influencing factors， industry classification， and energy flow analysis， this study can provide efficient carbon reduction pathways from industrial structure optimisation and energy restructuring. This study will also provide scientific support for green development planning measures at the provincial level under the "dual carbon goals".

Key words: carbon emission, influencing factors, industry analysis, emission reduction pathways