| 天气与气候 |
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| Change of Average Air Temperature and Precipitation at Yutian Oasis in the Southern Part of Tarim Basin During 1960—2007 |
| Haimid · yimit1,2, LENG Zhong-xiao1, 2, GAO Qian-zhao3 |
| 1.College of Resources and Environment Science, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 2.Postdoctoral Research Station of Theoretical Economics, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 3.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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Abstract The characteristics and tendency of climate change at Yutian oasis in the southwestern part of Tarim Basin of China in the recent 48 years (1960—2007) are analyzed using wavelet analysis, artificial neural network in this paper. The results show that the two-dimensional wavelet coefficient chart can manifest clearly the features of climate variation on different time scales and it could also be used to estimate qualitatively the future tendency of climate. The curves of wavelet variance show that prominent periods of annual mean air temperature are 4 years, 11~13 years. And annual precipitation has prominent periods of 7 years, 12 years and 27 years. Finally, climate tendency is predicted with the RBFN (Radial Basis Function Network) model. Results show that there is a increase in precipitation and a decrease in air temperature during 2008—2012. The results also indicate the climate tend to be warm and humid as a whole in Yutian oasis.
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Received: 17 October 2009
Published: 20 May 2010
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2010, Vol. 30 
