| 生物土壤与生态 |
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| Potential Effect of Climate Change on Distribution of 6 Desert Animals in China |
| WU Jian-guo, ZHOU Qiao-fu |
| Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China |
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Abstract It is crucial to understand the effects of climate change on change of species distribution for the conservation of biodiversity. The effects of climate change on change of distribution of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa reginae adlerberg), Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford), Wild Cat (Felis silvestris schreber), Asiatic Wild Ass (Equus hemionus(pallas), Stone Marten (Martes foina(erxleben) and Camelus Bactrianus (Camelus bactrianus linnaeus) in China were analyzed by use of the CART (classification and regression tree) niche model under climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results show that climate change will cause decrease in the current distribution region of the animals. In 2081—2100, the decrease of current distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa reginae adlerberg),Wild Cat or Asiatic Wild Ass was the highest, while the decrease of current distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford), Stone Marten or Camelus Bactrianus was lower than that of Goitred Gazelle, Wild Cat or Asiatic Wild Ass. The new suitable distribution region or total suitable distribution region of Goitred Gazelle (Gazella Subgutturosa Reginae Adlerberg), Stone Marten or Camelus Bactrianus increases from 1991—2020 to 2081—2100, while that of other animals will decrease from 1991—2020 to 2081—2100. Additionally, following climate change, the western or northern or south-eastern regions of current suitable distribution of Asiatic Wild Ass would reduce, and new suitable regions would expand towards north-western Qinghai or western Tibet; and the current suitable distribution regions of Goitred Gazelle (gazella subgutturosa yarkandensis blanford) will be fragmented greatly, and new suitable regions would expand scattered towards west or northern Xinjiang or KunLun Mountains; and south or east or west regions of current suitable distribution of Wild Cat will reduce and fragment, and new suitable regions would expand towards western or northern or southern current distribution of the animals; and south or south-east regions of current suitable distribution of other animals would reduce, while new suitable regions would expand towards west or north-west regions of current distribution of these animals. Additionally, following climate change, the change of suitable distribution region of the animals was not consistently related with change of annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China, and the change in current distribution region, suitable distribution region or total distribution region of many animals was poorly related with change in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China, and the suitable distribution region of many animals was not linearly changed with change of the annual mean air temperature and precipitation in China, and the determined coefficient of the linear regression correlation between the change of many animals distribution and annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in China was not high. The results indicate that climate change will cause decrease in the current distribution region of the animals in the future, while it will cause expansion of suitable distribution region or total distribution region of the animals, and it will also cause change in spatial distribution pattern of the animals.
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Received: 07 August 2010
Published: 20 March 2011
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2011, Vol. 31 
