| Desert and Desertification |
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| The Relative Roles of Climate Change and Human Activities in Desertification Process:
A case study in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China |
| SUN Jian-guo1,2, WANG Tao2, YAN Chang-zhen2 |
1.School of Mathematics, Physics and Software Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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Abstract To overcome shortcoming of current research on relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification process, we put forward a vegetation-climate spatio-temporal relationship statistical model. Based on this model, we quantitatively discriminated the relative roles of climate change and human activities in the desertification process in Yulin, Shaanxi Province from 1986 to 2000 on grid scale. Results showed that desertification development occurred mainly in the southern hilly and gully area of Yulin whereas desertification reversion took place in the northern sand and marsh area. The spatial pattern was especially evident and had no significant change in the study period. From the first time section (1986-1990) to the second (1991-1995), the desertification process was developing as a whole, and human activities roles were always overwhelmingly dominant in the desertification development district and the desertification reversion district (they were 98.7% and 101.4% respectively), but the role of climate change was extremely slight. From the second time section (1991-1995) to the third time section (1996-2000), the desertification process reached a stable state, and the role of climate change was nearly equivalent to that of human activities in the desertification development district (they were 46.2% and 53.8% separately), yet the role of human activities came up to 119.0% in the desertification reversion district, while the role of climate change amounted to -19.0%. In addition, the relative roles of climate change and human activities possessed great spatial heterogeneity. The conclusion rather coincides with the qualitative analysis in many literatures, it indicates that this method has certain rationality and can be utilized as a reference for desertification monitoring and research in other areas.
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Received: 01 September 2011
Published: 20 May 2012
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2012, Vol. 32 
