Abstract:

As a pivotal economic growth hub in northwest China， the coordinated coupling between new-type urbanization and economic resilience in Gansu Province is crucial for high-quality regional development. Based on panel data from 14 prefecture-level cities and autonomous prefectures in Gansu Province during 2012-2023， this study evaluated the levels of new-type urbanization and economic resilience. Utilizing coupling coordination models and kernel density estimation， we revealed the spatiotemporal coupling patterns and dynamic evolution between these two systems. Furthermore， Random Forest algorithms and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression （GTWR） models were employed to analyze the key driving factors and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicated that： （1） From 2012 to 2023， Gansu Province's new-type urbanization index increased from 0.352 to 0.438， progressing from a relatively low level to a moderate level， while its economic resilience index rose from 0.163 to 0.377， shifting from low resilience to relatively low resilience. （2） The coupling coordination index between new-type urbanization and economic resilience improved from 0.468 to 0.567， shifting from low coordination to moderate coordination. Lanzhou maintained persistently high coordination levels， while Jinchang and Jiayuguan demonstrated relatively lower performance. The coordination between Jiayuguan's economic resilience and its subsystems of ecological， economic， and social urbanization was relatively low， but showed a significant potential for improvement. （3） The spatial heterogeneity of the coupling pattern between new-type urbanization and economic resilience in Gansu Province was significant， and the degree of agglomeration in high-value areas had been gradually increasing. Spatially， this revealed a "core polarization-edge lag" gradient pattern across the region. （4） Proportion of urban population， per capita green space area， goods export volume， and local fiscal expenditure had been identified as key driving factors， exhibiting heterogeneous directions and intensity of influence across spatiotemporal dimensions.

Key words: new-type urbanization, economic resilience, coupling coordination, driving factors, spatiotemporal non-stationarity