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中国沙漠 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 106-112.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00198

• 中国地理学会沙漠分会2014年学术研讨会论文选 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于树轮δ13C的阿尔泰山南坡夏季降水变化分析

张瑞波, 尚华明, 袁玉江, 魏文寿, 张同文, 陈峰, 喻树龙, 范子昂, 秦莉   

  1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点开放实验室/新疆树木年轮生态实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-13 修回日期:2014-11-28 出版日期:2015-01-20 发布日期:2015-01-20
  • 通讯作者: 袁玉江(Email: yuanyuj5502@sina.com)
  • 作者简介:张瑞波(1983-),男,陕西武功人,副研究员,主要从事气候变化与环境、树木年轮气候学研究.Email: river0511@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41275120, 41405139);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY 201206026);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2014014)

Summer Precipitation Variation in the Southern Slope of the Altay Mountains Recorded by Tree-ring δ13C

Zhang Ruibo, Shang Huaming, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshou, Zhang Tongwen, Chen Feng, Yu Shulong, Fan Ziang, Qin Li   

  1. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2014-10-13 Revised:2014-11-28 Online:2015-01-20 Published:2015-01-20

摘要:

利用阿尔泰山南坡东、中、西部3个样点的西伯利亚落叶松树轮δ13C序列,结合阿勒泰地区7个气象站降水资料分析表明,树轮δ13C序列对阿尔泰山南坡夏季降水有较好的响应,最高相关系数可达到-0.682(p<0.0001).利用回归方法重建了过去160年来阿尔泰山南坡夏季降水量.阿尔泰山南坡夏季降水在1850-1871年偏多,1872-1956年经历了长期的干旱,20世纪60年代至今,随着新疆整体气候的暖湿化,阿尔泰山南坡经历了较长的湿润期.重建的夏季降水与上年冬季北极涛动(AO)有较好的相关性,北极涛动可能对阿尔泰山南坡过去160年降水有较大影响.阿尔泰山南坡过去160年夏季降水变化存在11 a(95% )、2.7 a (95%)、2.4 a(95%)、2.1 a(99%)和2.0 a(99%)的准周期变化.

关键词: 阿尔泰山, 树木年轮, 降水, δ13C, 气候变化

Abstract:

In this paper, we developed 3 tree-ring δ13C chronologies from eastern, central and western on south slope of the Altay Mountains based on standard dendrochronology methods and stable carbon isotope research process. Correlation analysis combined with precipitation data from 7 meteorological stations in the Altay Mountains showed that, the tree-ring δ13C series response to summer precipitation on south slope of the Altay Mountains, the highest single correlation index can reach to -0.682 (p<0.0001). The summer precipitation was constructed with regression method. The reconstruction could go back to 1850 and has an adjusted r2 of 0.453 (1962-2008). The precipitation variability in the past 160 years was analyzed, it shown that the summer precipitation is above normal in the 1850-1871, then the climate have a long dryer period in 1872-1956, and after 1960s until today, it experienced a long wetter period with the climate warming and wetting in Xinjiang. There have a good correlation between summer precipitation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Arctic Oscillation may have a greater impact on precipitation variability on south slope of the Altay Mountains. The summer precipitation have the quasi-periodic variations of 11 a (95%), 2.7 a (95%), 2.4 a (95%), 2.1 a (99%) and 2.0 a (99%) .

Key words: Altay Mountains, tree-ring, precipitation, δ13C, climate change

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