关键词: 气候变化, 水资源, 干燥指数, 甘南高原

Abstract: Based on the surface meteorology and water resources observation data in the main runoff generating area of the upper Yellow River, the characters of climate evolution and water resources change and their relationship are analyzed; in addition the water resources climate model is also established. The results show that the inter-annual change of precipitation displayed descending trend, the tendency rate was -2.26~-0.96 mm·a^-1, this reduction mainly happened in autumn and its sharp point was at 1980—1990. It is proved that the 6~7 a short period and 15 a long period are significant. The results also show that the inter-annual change of temperature displayed marked ascending trend, the rising rate of temperature is higher than that of whole nation and its sharp point was at 1970s, the aridity index of lawn also displayed prominent ascending trend, in recent 50 years the climate of Gannan Plateau showed warming and drying trend, It is also found that the water resources displayed remarkable descending trend, it existed 2~3 a, 7~8 a, 20~23 a periods, water resource showed marked positive correlation with precipitation, while it showed marked negative correlation with aridity index, the water source will decrease if precipitation increase and dry index of grassland ascend.

Key words: climate evolution, water resources, aridity index, Gannan Plateau