关键词: 祁连山北坡, 农林牧业结构, 种植业比例, 气候变化, 对策

Abstract:

The basic characteristic of modern climate change in northern of Qilian Mountains is climate warming continually. The climate change showed evidence transition in 1986. The annual average temperature in 1987—2003 was 0.8℃ higher than that in 1961—1986. The accumulative temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃increased by 142℃ and 131℃ respectively, showing liner increasing trend. The precipitation increased 7.5 mm, showing gradually increasing trend. The suitable planting section and the limited planting altitude for crops went up due to climate warming. Among the main fifteen crops, the planting altitude of cotton, corn and cole was separately increased by 100 m, 150 m, 200 m, with a rapidly extending of cultivation area. The northern of Qilian Mountains can be generally divided into five climatic and ecological regions for agriculture, forestry and stockbreeding, according to the vertical distribution characters of agricultural climate resources, the regionalization of the suitable planting area of the fifteen main crops, and the composition pattern of agriculture, forestry and stockbreeding, and based on the principle of climate and ecology similarity. For the five regions, their cultivation proportions of agriculture-forestry-stockbreeding and of summer grain-autumn grain-economy crop-forage grass were suggested, and their developing orientations in the future were also proposed in the paper.

Key words: northern of Qilian mountains, agriculture-forestry-stockbreeding pattern, proportion of planting, climate change, countermeasures