近540 a东亚夏季海平面气压场的重建及其与数值模拟的比较

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国东部地区旱涝分布和东亚夏季海平面气压存在密切关系的基础上,利用1470—2008年中国东部地区旱涝等级资料、1850—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压资料,运用主成分回归的方法重建了1470—2008年的东亚地区夏季海平面气压场,并对重建结果进行了检验,同时对1470—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压重建场和FGOALS_gl数值模式模拟的海平面气压场进行了对比分析。结果表明:①1850—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场在东亚夏季风关键区（中国内陆地区以及西北太平洋部分地区）重建效果相对于其他地区要好。②1470—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场主要存在高纬与中纬气压差异、海洋与陆地差异的两种空间分布型;1470—1999年FGOALS_gl数值模拟的东亚夏季海平面气压主要体现了海陆气压差异。③根据重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场定义的1470—2008年东亚夏季风指数的演变具有明显的阶段性,16世纪中期到17世纪初东亚夏季风偏强,17世纪偏弱,18世纪经历了“弱-强-弱-强-弱”的变化,19世纪则是“强-弱-强-弱”的变化,20世纪是明显的“弱-强-弱”变化。而1470—1999年数值模拟的东亚夏季风指数序列与重建序列的主要差异出现在16世纪末和18世纪末,两者的变化趋势相反,其他时段的变化趋势基本一致。

关键词: 东亚夏季风, 海平面气压, 重建, 数值模拟

Abstract: Based on the well coupling relationship between the drought/flood distribution in eastern China and the East-Asian summer sea-level pressure, the East-Asian sea-level pressure (SLP) in summer during 1470-2008 was reconstructed by using the drought/flood grade data from 90 meteorological stations in eastern China, the SLP data during 1850-2008 and the principal component regression (PCR) method. Meanwhile, the reconstructed SLP result was compared with the simulated SLP by FGOALS_gl model. Results showed that the reconstructed SLP in key areas of the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM), i.e. China and some part of the Northwest Pacific, was more credible than in other areas. The primary spatial variation of the reconstructed SLP during 1470-2008 were existed between high-latitude area and middle-latitude area as well as between sea and land, while the primary spatial variation of the stimulated SLP during 1470-1999 were only between sea and land. The EASM defined by the reconstructed SLP showed obviously periodical change. The strength of reconstructed EASM was relatively strong from mid-16th century to the early 17th century and relatively weak during 17th century. The EASM experienced 4 cycles of "weak-strong-weak-strong-weak" during 18th century and 3 cycles of "strong-weak-strong-weak" during 19th century. During 20th century, the EASM had obvious change of "weak-strong-weak". The primary difference between the reconstructed and simulated EASM appeared at the end of 16th and 18th century, and the trend in the other times was basically consistent.

Key words: East-Asian summer monsoon, sea-level pressure, reconstruction, numerical simulation

中图分类号:

P424

李茜, 魏凤英, 李栋梁. 近540 a东亚夏季海平面气压场的重建及其与数值模拟的比较[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(4): 1017-1024.

LI Qian, WEI Feng-ying, LI Dong-liang. Reconstruction of East-Asian Summer Sea-level Pressure During 1470-2008
and Its Comparison with Simulated Sea-level Pressure[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2012, 32(4): 1017-1024.

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