利用树轮资料重建黄河源区曲什安河1505-2010年流量

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00198

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用采自青海省玛沁县雪山乡的祁连圆柏（Sabina przewalskii）建立树轮宽度标准化年表，分析树木生长与大米滩水文站平均流量的关系。前一年11月到当年6月的平均流量与树轮宽度密切相关，相关系数达0.62。重建了黄河上游一级支流曲什安河1505-2010年的流量，重建结果稳定可靠。结果显示，重建序列大体经历了5个丰水期（1655-1697、1746-1816、1898-1916、1933-1957、1962-1992年）和10个枯水期（1510-1520、1530-1541、1544-1586、1590-1654、1698-1720、1728-1745、1817-1836、1856-1886、1917-1932、1993-2004年）。本重建序列与青海德令哈地区降水序列及黄河上游流量序列变化趋势具有较好的一致性，研究结果还得到了其他文献以及历史资料的验证。多窗谱分析表明重建序列存在着2～2.7、3、3.1～3.4、85～256 a的显著变化周期，其中2～2.7、3、3.1～3.4 a的周期可能与ENSO有关。此外，重建流量序列与AMO指数、南亚季风指数等大尺度气候驱动因子有一定的联系。

关键词: 树木年轮, 黄河源, 重建, 流量

Abstract: Tree-ring width STD chronology was created by Sabina przewalskii which was collected in Xueshan Township of Qinghai Province. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with instrumental streamflow records from previous November to current June from the Damitan hydrological Station, with a correlation coefficient of 0.62. Streamflow of the Qushian River was reconstructed for the past 506 years. It was verified that the reconstructed series was reliable by verification statistics. The relatively low streamflow periods were 1510-1520, 1530-1541, 1544-1586, 1590-1654, 1698-1720, 1728-1745, 1817-1836, 1856-1886, 1917-1932, 1993-2004, and the relatively high streamflow periods were 1655-1697, 1746-1816, 1898-1916, 1933-1957, 1962-1992. The trends of reconstructed sequence in this study and the reconstructed precipitation series in Delingha, Tibetan Plateau and streamflow reconstruction series for the Upper Yellow River were highly correlated in common years. In addition, the reliability of this reconstructed sequence could be confirmed by some documents and historical records. Multi-taper spectral analysis suggests the existence of significant periods of 2-2.7, 3, 3.1-3.4, and 85-256 years. The period of 2-2.7, 3 and 3.1-3.4 years may be related to ENSO variability. Moreover, the reconstructed series have a relationship with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and South Asian summer monsoon.

Key words: tree-ring, source region of Yellow River, reconstruction, streamflow

中图分类号:

P337

肖丁木, 秦宁生, 黄小梅. 利用树轮资料重建黄河源区曲什安河1505-2010年流量[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(2): 372-383.

Xiao Dingmu, Qin Ningsheng, Huang Xiaomei. Tree-ring Based Streamflow Reconstruction for the Qushian River of Yellow River Source Region from 1505 to 2010[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(2): 372-383.

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