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中国沙漠 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 191-198.

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

北疆西部近50 a来气候、水文变化趋势及其与北大西洋/北极涛动的关系

郝兴明1,2, 李 聪3, 李卫红1,2*, 赵锐锋1,2   

  1. (1.中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 2.绿洲生态与荒漠环境中国科学院重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 3.新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002)
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-14 修回日期:2010-06-11 出版日期:2011-01-20 发布日期:2011-01-20
  • 通讯作者: 李卫红

Response of Climate and Hydrology Change to North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation in the West of Northern Xinjiang during the Last Fifty Years

HAO Xing-ming1,2, LI Cong3, LI Wei-hong1,2, ZHAO Rui-feng1,2   

  1. (1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011,China; 2.CAS Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Urumqi 830011,China; 3.Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, China)
  • Received:2010-05-14 Revised:2010-06-11 Online:2011-01-20 Published:2011-01-20
  • Contact: LI Wei-hong

摘要: 根据北疆西部11个气象站点1957—2007气象资料,主要代表性河流1960—2006年流量数据以及1957—2007年NAO和AO时间序列数据,采用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析等方法,研究了北疆西部地区近50 a来气候、水文的变化趋势,分析了气候变化对径流的影响,初步探讨了NAO和AO对区域气候变化的影响。研究结果表明,近50 a来,北疆西部地区增温、增湿显著,但二者变化幅度存在季节差异。受气候变化的影响,奎屯河年径流量表现出显著增加趋势。进一步分析发现,奎屯河、四棵树河年径流量的变化主要受温度因子控制,卡琅古尔河、精河和博尔塔拉河的年径流量则主要受降水因子控制。研究表明,艾比湖水域面积同样受气候变化的影响,尤其是与年降水量增加紧密相关,二者相关系数为0.584。相关分析证实NAO和AO确实对北疆西部地区的气候变化具有显著影响。具体体现在,NAO和AO显著的影响研究区冬季温度和全年的温度变化;NAO对整个区域年降水具有显著影响。温度比降水对NAO和AO的响应更敏感。

关键词: 气候变化, 地表水资源, 北大西洋涛动, 北极涛动

Abstract: In this paper, based on the meteorological, river flow and NAO, AO time series data during the last fifty years, the change trends of temperature, precipitation and river flow and their response to North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) in the west of Northern Xinjiang were studied with methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and correlation analysis. The results showed that the annual average temperature and precipitation increased significantly with time in the study area during the last fifty years, however, they had different seasonal variations. Annual flow of the Kuitun River increased significantly with the climate change. The study also discovered that the annual flows of the Kuitun and Sikeshu rivers were affected by temperature while the annual flows of the Kalangguer, Jinghe and Boertala rivers were affected by precipitation. Change of water area of the Ebinur Lake was also affected by climate factors, especially annual precipitation (the correlation coefficient was 0.584). The correlation analysis between NAO/AO and meteorological data presented that NAO and AO had an obvious influence on temperature and precipitation of the study area. On the one hand, NAO and AO significantly affected the annual temperature and winter temperature; on the other hand, NAO obviously influenced the annual precipitation in the study area. The sensitivity of temperature to NAO and AO was stronger than precipitation.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, North Atlantic oscillation, Arctic oscillation

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