RCPs情景下未来青海高原气候变化趋势预估

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00138

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)耦合模式结果对 RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)情景下的青海高原气温、降水变化趋势及极端气候事件2011-2100年演变特征进行了预估。结果表明:在21世纪,青海高原年平均气温显著升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5排放情景下增温速率分别为0.06 ℃/10a、0.24 ℃/10a和0.61 ℃/10a。年降水量将明显增加,幅度1.4～7.0 mm/10a。青海高原21世纪与气温、降水有关的事件都有趋于极端化的趋势,极端冷指标下降,极端暖指标均明显上升。极端降水频次增加,强度加重,且变化幅度与排放强度成正比。

关键词: RCPs, 气候变化, 预估

Abstract:

Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation of air temperature, precipitation and extreme events change under Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) scenario, we carried on a forecast of climate change in the Qinghai Plateau in the 21st century.The results show a significant rise of annual average air temperature in the Qinghai Plateau in the 21st century, warming rates will be 0.06 ℃/10a, 0.24 ℃/10a and 0.61 ℃/10a respectively in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Annual precipitation will increase obviously, range between 1.4-7.0 mm/10a. In the 21st century the precipitation and temperature will become more extreme, there would be an overall increasing trend in extreme air precipitation and temperature events over most of the Qinghai Plateau under a warming environment, and the change scope is scaled to the emissions scenarios.

Key words: RCPs, climate change, forecast

中图分类号:

P467

刘彩红, 余锦华, 李红梅. RCPs情景下未来青海高原气候变化趋势预估[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(5): 1353-1361.

Liu Caihong, Yu Jinhua, Li Hongmei. Projected Climate Change under the RCPs Scenario in the Qinghai Plateau[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2015, 35(5): 1353-1361.

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