基于分布式水文模型（SWAT）的土地利用和气候变化对洮河流域水文影响特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00189

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 土地利用和气候变化是流域水资源发生变化的重要原因。以洮河流域为研究区，通过模型率定得到适宜于洮河流域的分布式水文模型（SWAT），在综合考虑流域土地利用和气候变化特征的基础上构建多种情景模式，并对不同情景模式下的水文特征进行模拟，得到以下结论：（1）校准后的SWAT模型，R²、R_e和E_ns分别达到0.83、-8%和0.68，说明该模型在洮河流域径流模拟中具有较好的适用性。（2）与1976-1995年相比，气候变化使流域产水量增加1.30 mm，土地利用变化使流域产水量减少0.77 mm。土地利用变化对水文特征的影响小于气候变化，但土地利用变化对流域管理的作用却是不可忽视的。从极端土地利用变化情景可知，与1985年土地利用情景相比，林地、草地和耕地情景中产水量分别变化了18.1%、-7.4%和-10.1%。从气候变化情景可知，当降水量不变，温度分别变化2 ℃、1 ℃、-1 ℃和-2 ℃时，流域产水量的变化量分别为-4.23%、-2.56%、3.08%和6.70%；当温度不变，降水量分别变化20%、10%、-10%和-20%时，流域产水量的变化量分别为56.32%、30.88%、-23.66%和-45.94%。（3）在土地利用和气候变化共同作用下，地表径流增加的区域主要位于下游的广河县、和政县和康乐县以及上游的碌曲县和夏河县等地，地表径流增加地区的面积约占流域总面积的39%。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 气候变化, SWAT模型, 情景模拟, 水文特征

Abstract: Land use and climate changes are the important reasons for leads to the water resources change at a basin scale. This paper got a suitable model by calibrating distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for Taohe River Basin. Take Taohe river in northwest China as an example, constructed scenarios based on comprehensive consideration of variation characteristics of Land use and climate changes. Then simulated the hydrological characteristics and discussed the hydrological response in different scenarios at basin scale. The results showed that: (1) After successful calibration verification, the correlation coefficient (R²), relative error (R_e) and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient (E_ns) of SWAT model are 0.83, -8% and 0.68 respectively. It shows that the calibrated SWAT model can simulate the monthly flows well, and is thus applicable to the study of Taohe River Basin. (2) Compared with 1976-1995, water yield throughout this basin has increased by 1.30 mm due to climate change and decreased by 0.77 mm due to land use change. The effect of the land use change on hydrological characteristics is less than climate change. However, the land use change is anunneglectable factor in basin management. From the scenarios of extreme land use change, the water yield in forest, pasture and farmland are changed by 18.1%, -7.4% and -10.1% respectively compared with that of the 1985 land use scenarios. From the scenarios of climate change, the temperature changes are 2 ℃, 1 ℃, -1 ℃ and 2 ℃ respectively when the precipitation is unchanged, and the changes in basin-wide water yield are -4.23%, -2.56%, 3.08% and 6.70%, respectively. The precipitation changes are 20%, 10%, -10% and -20% respectively when the temperature is unchanged, and the changes in basin-wide water yield are 56.32%, 30.88%, -23.66% and -45.94%, respectively. (3) The interaction of land use and climate changes, the area of surface runoff increase mainly locates in Guanghe, Hezhen and Kangle county of the lower reaches of Taohe River, and in Luqu and Xiahe county of the upper reaches of Taohe River. The area of the surface runoff increase is about 39% in the total area.

Key words: land use change, climate change, SWAT model, scenario simulation, hydrological characteristics

中图分类号:

U412.1
P344

王莺, 张强, 王劲松, 张雷. 基于分布式水文模型（SWAT）的土地利用和气候变化对洮河流域水文影响特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(1): 175-185.

Wang Ying, Zhang Qiang, Wang Jinsong, Zhang Lei. Appling SWAT Model to Explore the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Changes on the Hydrological Characteristics in Taohe River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(1): 175-185.

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