农户对气候变化适应行为的有效性评价

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00164

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响非常显著，更好地理解农户对适应行为的有效性评价对于制定合适的适应政策、提高农民适应气候变化的能力非常重要。利用陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户调查样本数据，分析农户适应行为有效性感知特征，并结合调查地2000-2014年的统计年鉴数据中常用耕地面积和粮食产量指标，从客观层面验证适应行为的效果，最后运用多元线性回归分为3个模型辨识影响农户对适应行为有效性评价的显著因素。结果表明：（1）具有高适应效能感知的适应行为大部分被受访农户使用；2000-2014年研究区的粮食产量在波动中上升，说明适应行为有一定的实际效果；（2）影响农户对适应行为有效性评价的显著因素包括农户属性中的非农业收入、农业收入、种植规模、性别、看电视和赶集的频率，农户对气候变化的感知中的本地自然灾害变化、气候变化导致作物播种时间、收获时间、作物产量变化和病虫害，2005-2015年的降水等。

关键词: 气候变化, 适应行为, 适应效能感知, 有效性评价, 黄土丘陵沟壑区, 陕北

Abstract: The impact of climate change is very significant on farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better assessment of the efficacy of farmers' adaptive behaviors for formulating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers' ability to adapt to climate change. Based on survey data from interviews with farmers in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, the characteristics of farmers' perceived adaptation efficacy was analyzed, and with the common cultivated land area and grain yield in statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2014, the effect of adaptive behavior was verified from the objective level. Three multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the efficacy of farmers' adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments. The results are as follows:(1) In general, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most interviewees. Measures that had relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as migration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. The food production of the surveyed areas rose in volatility during 2000-2014, indicating the actual effect of adaptive behaviors. (2) The key demographical and social factors of farmers' influencing assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors were non-farming income, farming income, planting scale, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market and gender. Changes of the local natural disasters, the adjustment of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers' adaptation assessments. Average precipitation in 2005-2015 was found to influence farmers' adaptation appraisals significantly. The natural environment is not only a macroscopic factor limiting the distribution of crops, but also a driving factor for farmers to adopt micro measures.

Key words: climate change, adaptive behavior, perceived adaptation efficacy, assessments of the efficacy, the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau, northern Shaanxi

中图分类号:

C915

孙立凡, 史兴民, 王露. 农户对气候变化适应行为的有效性评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2018, 38(2): 428-436.

Sun Lifan, Shi Xingmin, Wang Lu. Assessments of the Efficacy of Farmers' Adaptive Behaviors to Climate Change[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2018, 38(2): 428-436.

参考文献

[1] IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Mitigation of Climate Change[M].New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[2] 王红丽,张绪成,魏胜文.气候变化对西北半干旱区旱作农业的影响及解决途径[J].农业资源与环境学报,2015,32(6):517-524.
[3] Shisanya S,Mafongoya P.Adaptation to climate change and the impacts on household food security among rural farmers in uMzinyathi District of Kwazulu-Natal,South Africa[J].Food Security,2016,8(3):1-12.
[4] 谭灵芝,王国友.气候变化对干旱区家庭生计脆弱性影响的空间分析——以新疆于田绿洲为例[J].中国人口科学,2012(2):67-77.
[5] 张钦,赵雪雁,王亚茹,等.气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):814-822.
[6] 赵惠燕,胡祖庆,胡想顺,等.陕西农村适应气候变化状况及脆弱性评估与分析[J].气候变化研究快报,2015,4(3):160-170.
[7] 张虎,孔荣.农户农业保险支付意愿影响因素研究——以福建省龙岩市413户烟农的调查为例[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2014,14(3):76-82.
[8] 刘珍环,杨鹏,吴文斌,等.自然环境因素对农户选择种植作物的影响机制——以黑龙江省宾县为例[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(15):3238-3247.
[9] 郭芳,赵雪雁,张丽琼,等.甘南高原不同生计方式农户的碳足迹分析[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3755-3765.
[10] 路慧玲,周立华,陈勇,等.基于农户视角的盐池县退牧还草政策可持续性分析[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(4):1065-1071.
[11] Kalungu J W,Filho W L,Harris D.Smallholder farmers' perception of the impacts of climate change and variability on rain-fed agricultural practices in semi-arid and sub-humid regions of Kenya[J].Journal of Environment and Earth Science,2013,3(7):129-140.
[12] Niles M T,Mueller N D.Farmer perceptions of climate change:Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends,irrigation,and climate beliefs[J].Global Environmental Change,2016,39:133-142.
[13] 王全忠,周宏,陈欢,等.农户对气候变化感知的有效性分析——以江苏省水稻种植为例[J].技术经济,2014,33(2):71-76.
[14] 云雅如,方修琦,田青,等.黑龙江省漠河县乡村人群对气候变化的感知方式与认知结果[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):746-749.
[15] 雒丽,赵雪雁,王亚茹,等.石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1171-1181.
[16] 卞莹莹,宋乃平.农牧交错带不同生计方式农户对生态环境的感知和适应——以宁夏盐池县皖记沟村为例[J].浙江大学学报:农业与生命科学版,2014,40(2):210-222.
[17] Alam K.Farmers' adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments:a case study of Rajshahi District,Bangladesh[J].Agricultural Water Management,2015,148:196-206.
[18] Huang J K,Jiang J,Wang J X,et al.Crop diversification in coping with extreme weather events in China[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13:677-686.
[19] Below T B,Mutabazi K D,Kirschke D,et al.Can farmers' adaptation to climate change be explained by socioeconomic household-level variables?[J].Global Environmental Change,2012,22:223-235.
[20] 王晓敏,金建君,高艺玮.农户适应气候变化的行为及影响因素——基于实验经济学方法的研究[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(4):501-505.
[21] 靳乐山,魏同洋,胡振通.牧户对气候变化的感知与适应——以内蒙古四子王旗查干补力格苏木为例[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(2):211-222.
[22] Brody S D,Zahran S,Vedlitz N,et al.Examining the relationship between physical vulnerability and public perceptions of global climate change in the United States[J].Environment and Behavior,2008,40:72-95.
[23] Grothmann T,Patt A.Adaptive capacity and human cognition:the process of individual adaptation to climate change[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15(3):199-213.
[24] Nelson R,Kokic P,Elliston L,et al.Structural adjustment:A vulnerability index for Australian broadacre agriculture[J].Australian Commodities Forecasts & Issues,2005,12(1):171-179.
[25] 尹莎,陈佳,吴孔森,等.干旱环境胁迫下农户适应性研究——基于民勤绿洲地区农户调查数据[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(5):644-654.
[26] Laube W,Schraven B,Awo M.Smallholder adaptation to climate change:dynamics and limits in Northern Ghana[J].Climatic Change,2012,111:753-774.
[27] 赵雪雁.农户对气候变化的感知与适应研究综述[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(8):2440-2448.
[28] 李登科.陕北黄土高原丘陵沟壑区植被覆盖变化及其对气候的响应[J].西北植物学报,2009,29(5):867-873.
[29] 刘文泉.农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性研究方法初探[J].南京气象学院学报,2002(4):214-220.
[30] Dang L H,Li E,Bruwer J.Understanding climate change adaptive behavior of farmers:an integrated conceptual framework[J].International Journal of Climate Change Impacts & Responses,2012,3(2):255-272.
[31] Mertz O,Mbow C,Reenberg A,et al.Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel[J].Environmental Management,2009,43(5):804-816.
[32] Bohensky E L,Smajgl A,Brewer T.Patterns in household-level engagement with climate change in Indonesia[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,9:1-4.
[33] 侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1753-1764.
[34] 程录平,王立刚,王迎春,等.西北旱区雨养农业可持续发展研究[C]//中国农业资源与区划学会学术年会,2015.
[35] 张宏芳,潘留杰,卢珊,等.1901-2012年陕西降水、气温变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(6):1674-1682.