Study on the attribution of runoff variation in the Danghe River based on the Budyko hypothesis

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00127

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 210-219.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00127

Study on the attribution of runoff variation in the Danghe River based on the Budyko hypothesis

Pengfei Liang¹(), Huijuan Xin¹(), Zongxing Li¹^,²(), Fusen Nan³, Biao Tang¹, Wenbao Zhang¹

^1.School of Environment and Municipal Engineering，Lanzhou Jiaotong University，Lanzhou 730070，China
^2.Observation and Research Station of Eco-Hydrology and National Park by Stable Isotope Tracing in Alpine Region / Gansu Qilian Mountains Ecology Research Center / Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^3.College of Geography and Environmental Sciences，Northwest Normal University，Lanzhou 730070，China

Received:2022-08-10 Revised:2022-09-30 Online:2023-05-20 Published:2023-05-31
Contact: Huijuan Xin,Zongxing Li

Abstract

Abstract:

The characteristics of watershed water resources changes and their attribution identification have been important scientific problems in hydrological research. we analyzed the characteristics of meteorological， subsurface and hydrological elements changes using methods such as linear propensity estimation， and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes based on based on Budyko hypothesis in Danghe River basin. The results show that the temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend， and the climate developed toward the direction of warming and humidification. The area of forestland， grassland， arable land， water area and construction land increased while the area of unused land decreased； the glacier retreat rate was -3.86 km²·yr^-1； the average decrease rate of the annual average maximum freezing depth was -1.14 cm·yr^-1. The interannual increasing rate of runoff was 0.21×10⁸ m³/10yr， and the intra-annual distribution of runoff depicted a double-peak effect， the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the annual variation of runoff were 57.2% and 42.8%， respectively， and the contributions of climate change and human activities to the annual variation of runoff were 59.46% and 40.54%， respectively. The results of the study can provide a reference for the scientific management and optimal allocation of water resources in Danghe River basin.

Key words: Danghe River, climate change, runoff, attribution analysis, Budyko hypothesis

CLC Number:

TV121

Pengfei Liang, Huijuan Xin, Zongxing Li, Fusen Nan, Biao Tang, Wenbao Zhang. Study on the attribution of runoff variation in the Danghe River based on the Budyko hypothesis[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2023, 43(3): 210-219.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1 Location of the study area and distribution of hydrological and meteorological stations

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal trends of mean / maximum / minimum temperature during1966-2017

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal trends of precipitation during1966-2017

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of center of gravity migration of different land use types in 1980 and 2020

Fig.5 Interannual variation of glacier area during 1980-2015

Fig.6 Annual average maximum freezing depth （A）， rate of change of maximum freezing depth （B）， test significance of changes in maximum freezing depth （C） during 1960s-2010s

Fig.7 Analysis of runoff M-K mutation test during 1966-2020

Fig.8 Interannual variation and annual variation of runoff during 1966-2020

Fig.9 Temporal variation of runoff concentration degree and concentration periods

Fig.10 Relative contribution of precipitation and temperature to annual runoff variation

Table 1 Characteristic values of meteorological and hydrological variables in Danghe River Basin

时期	ET₀/mm	R/mm	P/mm	ω	R/P	ET₀/P	弹性系数
时期	ET₀/mm	R/mm	P/mm	ω	R/P	ET₀/P	Ε_P	ε_ET₀	ε_ω
基准期（1966—1981年）	1 282.4	21.9	102.0	0.68	0.21	12.58	1.55	-1.91	-7.87
变化期（1982—2017年）	1 233.2	26.6	111.1	0.67	0.24	11.10	1.53	-1.85	-7.49

Table 2 Attribution and identification of runoff changes in Danghe River

基准期	人类活动期	dR_P	dR_ET₀	dR_ω	dR	C_P /%	C_ET₀/%	C_ω /%
1966—1981年	1982—2020年	3.26	1.87	3.50	8.63	37.76	21.70	40.54

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Study on the attribution of runoff variation in the Danghe River based on the Budyko hypothesis

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