Potential distribution of the genus Agriophyllum under climate change

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00141

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 255-263.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00141

Potential distribution of the genus Agriophyllum under climate change

Hong Sun¹^,²(), Jiyun Duan¹^,³, Yujie Liu¹^,², Ruilan Ran¹^,², Xiaofeng Li¹^,², Pengshan Zhao¹()

^1.Key Laboratory of Stress Physiology and Ecology in Cold and Arid Regions，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China
^3.McGill University，Montreal 999040，Canada

Received:2022-07-28 Revised:2022-12-12 Online:2023-03-20 Published:2023-04-12
Contact: Pengshan Zhao

Abstract

Abstract:

Agriophyllum squarrosum is considered as a potential crop for the future， and its wild relatives are rich in phenotypic and genetic variation， which is of great significance for the domestication and genetic modification of A. squarrosum. Based on the distribution data of five species and nine environmental variables， the potentially suitable habitats of Agriophyllum were simulated for the current and two future periods （the 2050s and 2070s）， whereas different climate scenarios were included for future simulations. The Jackknife test was applied to evaluate the environmental factors affecting the suitable areas of Agriophyllum and kuenm data package to optimize model parameters. Finally， the spatial changes of suitable areas of Agriophyllum in the future were analyzed. The results showed that：（1） MaxEnt model has high accuracy in predicting the potential distribution， with the AUC value of 0.957±0.006. The current total suitable area of Agriophyllum is 1 731.50×10⁴ km²， and the highly suitable area is 462.35×10⁴ km²， which can be widely distributed in the mid-latitude arid and semi-arid regions of Asia. （2） Under future climate change scenarios， the potential distribution regions of Agriophyllum tend to expand to high latitudes and high altitudes. （3） Temperature is the principal environmental factor affecting the distribution.

Key words: Agriophyllum, MaxEnt, potential distribution areas, climate change

CLC Number:

Hong Sun, Jiyun Duan, Yujie Liu, Ruilan Ran, Xiaofeng Li, Pengshan Zhao. Potential distribution of the genus Agriophyllum under climate change[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2023, 43(2): 255-263.

Figures/Tables 6

References 44

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简称	环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
bio2	昼夜温差月均值	28.2	2.5
bio1	年平均气温	23.1	42.1
bio3	等温差	14.8	25.6
bio8	最湿季平均气温	14.0	2.3
bio15	降水量变异系数	8.2	2.6
bio17	最干季降水量	6.0	15.7
bio12	年降水量	4.6	6.1
bio18	最暖季降水量	0.8	3.1
bio19	最冷季降水量	0.3	0.1

简称	环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
bio2	昼夜温差月均值	28.2	2.5
bio1	年平均气温	23.1	42.1
bio3	等温差	14.8	25.6
bio8	最湿季平均气温	14.0	2.3
bio15	降水量变异系数	8.2	2.6
bio17	最干季降水量	6.0	15.7
bio12	年降水量	4.6	6.1
bio18	最暖季降水量	0.8	3.1
bio19	最冷季降水量	0.3	0.1

时期	当前	2050s			2070s
时期	当前	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
合计	1 731.50	1 841.54	1 978.15	2 084.15	1 870.44	2 014.14	2 315.75
低适生区	696.18	657.79	703.10	720.03	628.21	678.13	743.65
中适生区	572.98	562.78	617.37	612.41	600.24	614.61	605.99
高适生区	462.35	620.97	657.69	751.72	641.98	721.40	966.10

时期	当前	2050s			2070s
时期	当前	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
合计	1 731.50	1 841.54	1 978.15	2 084.15	1 870.44	2 014.14	2 315.75
低适生区	696.18	657.79	703.10	720.03	628.21	678.13	743.65
中适生区	572.98	562.78	617.37	612.41	600.24	614.61	605.99
高适生区	462.35	620.97	657.69	751.72	641.98	721.40	966.10

时期	面积/万km²			变化/%
时期	扩张	保留	收缩	扩张率	保留率	收缩率
2050s-SSP126	118.85	1 549.41	35.22	3.31	43.14	0.98
2050s-SSP245	214.17	1 568.29	16.33	5.96	43.66	0.45
2050s-SSP585	297.25	1 562.42	22.20	8.28	43.50	0.62
2070s-SSP126	135.49	1 566.31	18.32	3.77	43.61	0.51
2070s-SSP245	251.97	1 548.85	35.78	7.01	43.12	1.00
2070s-SSP585	462.06	1 564.81	19.82	12.86	43.56	0.55

Potential distribution of the genus Agriophyllum under climate change

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