Normalized difference vegetation index （ NDVI ） dynamics of grassland in Central Asia and its response to climate change and human activities

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00095

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 229-241.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00095

Normalized difference vegetation index （ NDVI ） dynamics of grassland in Central Asia and its response to climate change and human activities

Shihua Zhu¹^,²(), Xia Fang³^,⁴(), Xin Hang¹, Xiaoping Xie¹, Liangxiao Sun¹, Liangzhong Cao⁴^,⁵

^1.Jiangsu Climate Center / Jiangsu Meterological Bureau，Nanjing 210008，China
^2.International Institute for Earth System Science，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210093，China
^3.Xinjiang Institute of Engineering，Urumqi 830023，China
^4.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology，Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Urumqi 830011，China
^5.Jiujiang University，Jiujiang 332005，Jiangxi，China

Received:2022-03-22 Revised:2022-06-01 Online:2022-07-20 Published:2022-08-29
Contact: Xia Fang

Abstract

Abstract:

Dryland grasslands in Central Asia are threatened by climate change and human activities， but their relative contribution to grassland changes is still uncertain. Based on three sets of meteorological data and NDVI （Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）， this paper uses the residual analysis to study the grassland change pattern in Central Asia and the relative contributions of environmental and human factors. The results showed that the NDVI growth rate of grassland in Central Asia was 0.026/10a during 1982 to 2014. Spatially， the NDVI variations were similar to that of precipitation， showing a downward trend in the central and western regions and an upward trend in the hilly and mountainous regions of the east. The residual analysis shows that the relative contribution of climate change （CFSR， Climate Forecast System Reanalysis） and human activities account for 71.21% and 28.79%， respectively. The areas where man-made disturbances contribute more to NDVI changes are mainly located in the Altay Mountains， Tianshan Mountains and the grasslands of southeastern Kazakhstan， while the less contribution areas are mainly located in the southern Xinjiang and the desert regions of Central Asia. In most areas of Central Asia， grassland has a significant positive correlation with precipitation， and the warming promotion mainly occurs in high-latitude and alpine mountainous areas. The correlation between NDVI and temperature is gradually decreasing. Although global warming is still a huge challenge for Central Asian grasslands in the future， with the improvement of grassland vegetation resistance， the impact of warming on grasslands may not be as severe as expected.

Key words: grassland dynamics, climate change, human activities, driver analysis, temporal and spatial characteristics

CLC Number:

Q948.15

Shihua Zhu, Xia Fang, Xin Hang, Xiaoping Xie, Liangxiao Sun, Liangzhong Cao. Normalized difference vegetation index （ NDVI ） dynamics of grassland in Central Asia and its response to climate change and human activities[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2022, 42(4): 229-241.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 The location and pasture distribution of Central Asia

Table 1 Method for determining relative contributions of climate change and human disturbance to NDVI variations

类别	情景	Slope(NDVI_p)	Slope(NDVI_r)	气候变化贡献	人类活动贡献	描述
植被改善区	S1	>0	>0	$+$	$+$	共同作用
	S2	>0	<0	$+$	0	气候因子主导
	S3	<0	>0	0	$+$	人类活动主导
植被退化区	S4	<0	<0	—	—	共同作用
	S5	<0	>0	—	0	气候因子主导
	S6	>0	<0	0	—	人类活动主导

Table 1 Method for determining relative contributions of climate change and human disturbance to NDVI variations

类别	情景	Slope(NDVI_p)	Slope(NDVI_r)	气候变化贡献	人类活动贡献	描述
植被改善区	S1	>0	>0	$+$	$+$	共同作用
	S2	>0	<0	$+$	0	气候因子主导
	S3	<0	>0	0	$+$	人类活动主导
植被退化区	S4	<0	<0	—	—	共同作用
	S5	<0	>0	—	0	气候因子主导
	S6	>0	<0	0	—	人类活动主导

Fig. 2 Anomalies of growing season NDVImax， NDVImin and NDVImean （A） and anomalies of annual mean of temperature （tavg） and annual total precipitation （ppt） calculated from CFSR， MERRA， and ERA-interim reanalysis data （B） over grasslands in Central Asia during 1982 to 2014

Fig.3 Spatial patterns of temporal trends of annual total precipitation and mean temperature over grasslands in Central Asia during 1982 to 2014 calculated from MERRA， CFSR and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets

Fig.4 Trends of growing season （April-October） NDVI over grasslands in Central Asia during 1982 to 2014

Fig.5 Partial correlations of NDVI with precipitation and temperature based on MERRA， ERA-interim and CFSRreanalysis datasets. Red areas in the small inserted maps indicated the correlations significant at levels of 0.05

Fig.6 Temporal trends of correlation coefficients of growing season NDVI with precipitation and temperature in Central Asia during 1982 to 2014

Fig.7 NDVI change caused by the CFSR climate factors （A） and by human activities （B）， the relative contribution of human activities to NDVI （C）， and the spatial distribution and proportion （circular， E） of different scenarios of the impact of climate and human activities on NDVI （D）

Fig.8 NDVI change caused by the ERA climate factors （A） and by human activities （B）， the relative contribution of human activities to NDVI （C）， and the spatial distribution and proportion （circular， E） of different scenarios of the impact of climate and human activities on NDVI （D）

Fig. 9 NDVI change caused by the MERRA climate factors （A） and by human activities （B）， the relative contribution of human activities to NDVI （C）， and the spatial distribution and proportion （circular， E） of different scenarios of the impact of climate and human activities on NDVI （D）

Fig.10 The impact of short vegetation coverage changes and bare change （A）， tree canopy and bare change （B）， short vegetation coverage changes and tree canopy changes （C） on the temporal trend of NDVI during 1982-2014

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Normalized difference vegetation index （ NDVI ） dynamics of grassland in Central Asia and its response to climate change and human activities

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