中国沙漠 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 267-275.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00038

• 沙漠与沙漠化 • 上一篇    下一篇


许端阳1, 佟贺丰1, 李春蕾2, 任红艳3, 胡云锋3   

  1. 1. 中国科学技术信息研究所, 北京 100038;
    2. 中国林业科学研究院 森林生态环境与保护研究所, 北京 100091;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-04 修回日期:2014-04-08 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 作者简介:许端阳(1983-), 男, 河南洛阳人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事气候变化与沙漠化、科技政策与管理等的研究。Email:
  • 基金资助:

A System Dynamic Model with Coupled Natural and Human Factors for Desertification Simulation

Xu Duanyang1, Tong Hefeng1, Li Chunlei2, Ren Hongyan3, Hu Yunfeng3   

  1. 1. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China;
    2. Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2014-03-04 Revised:2014-04-08 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

摘要: 沙漠化土地是自然、人文因素共同作用下的地表复杂系统,建立耦合自然-人文因素的沙漠化动态模型对于理解沙漠化演变过程、预测发展趋势以及进行科学调控具有重要的意义。本文以鄂尔多斯为典型研究区,利用系统动力学的方法,针对气候变化、土壤水分、人口、经济、放牧、土地利用六大沙漠化驱动力建立其与植被NPP的影响与反馈,结合不同沙漠化等级对应的NPP阈值范围,构建耦合自然-人文因素的沙漠化动态系统动力学模型。模拟的植被NPP与基于MODIS影像反演的实际NPP的对比表明,模型总体较为可靠。对不同情景下研究区2011-2030年植被NPP及沙漠化动态模拟分析表明,降雨是控制研究区沙漠化动态的主要因素,但在未来人类活动不变的情况下降雨量增加50%仍不能改变现有的沙漠化状态; 禁牧休牧相对于退耕还林还草、植树种草等政策更有利于植被恢复,但总体成本较高; 单独政策均无法改变现有的沙漠化状态,而这些政策的取消则会在不同的时间内导致沙漠化朝重度和极重度方向发展。对于地方政府而言,则需要根据自身经济状况合理选择不同政策组合来确保沙漠化的持续改善。

关键词: 沙漠化, 系统动力学, 模型, 自然-人文耦合

Abstract: The desertified land is a complex earth surface system that induced by both natural factors and human activities. It is meaningful to develop a desertification simulating model coupling with natural and human factors for understanding the desertification progress, forecasting desertification trend and controlling desertification expansion. In this paper, Ordos was selected as the typical research region, and system dynamic method was used to construct the impacts and feedbacks among climate, soil water, people, economy, pasturage, land use and vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP); based on defining the threshold value of NPP for different desertification grades, the system dynamic model coupling with natural and human factors for desertification simulation was developed. The comparison between simulated NPP and actual NPP derived from MODIS images showed that the model developed in this study was reliable. The simulated results of vegetation NPP and desertification status from 2011 to 2030 under different scenarios showed that rainfall was the dominant climatic factors for desertification dynamics in Ordos; however, 50% increase of rainfall could not change the desertification status without the change of human activities in future. Comparing with grain for green and afforestation policies, the grazing prohibition and rest policy would be more beneficial for vegetation rehabilitation, but the cost would also be higher. The solely implementation of any pasturage or land use policy would not change the status of desertification without climate change; however, abolishing any of them would lead the status of desertification develop to severe and very severe in future. For local government, it is necessary to choose different combination of policies according to finance status to facilitate desertification reversion.

Key words: desertification, system dynamic, model, natural-human factors coupling