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中国沙漠 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 575-582.

• 国家重点基础研究发展规划 • 上一篇    下一篇

沙尘模式地表起沙参数不确定性分析

周 旭1, 吴成来2, 林朝晖2, 隆 宵3, 王 萍1   

  1. 1.兰州大学 西部灾害与环境力学教育部重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000; 2.中国科学院 大气物理研究所 国际气候与环境科学中心, 北京100029; 3.兰州大学 大气科学学院/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2010-12-01 修回日期:2011-03-04 出版日期:2011-05-20 发布日期:2011-05-20

Uncertainty Analysis of Surface Dust Emission Parameters of a Dust Model

ZHOU Xu1, WU Cheng-lai2, LIN Zhao-hui2, LONG Xiao3, WANG Ping1   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,China; 2.International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 3.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2010-12-01 Revised:2011-03-04 Online:2011-05-20 Published:2011-05-20

摘要: 起沙的参数化方法对沙尘天气的预报质量起着至关重要的作用。首先分析了目前应用广泛的沙尘模式中的参数土壤塑性压力P和cy对地表水平沙通量与垂直沙尘通量计算结果的影响,然后利用WRF-Chem3.0模式对2007年3月27—28日发生在我国西部地区的一次沙尘过程进行了模拟,分析了由于参数值选取的误差而造成沙尘模拟的不确定。结果表明,土壤塑性压力P对模拟结果有很大影响,P值的改变不仅影响PM10浓度大小的预测,而且还影响其浓度中心位置以及分布范围;cy值仅影响沙尘区域内PM10浓度大小的预测,对浓度中心位置和分布范围大小的预测没有影响。

关键词: 沙尘预报, 起沙方案, 敏感参数

Abstract:

Dust emission scheme plays an important role in dust event forecast. In this paper, we first analyze the effect of the parameters of soil plastic pressure p and cy on surface horizontal dust flux and vertical dust flux. Then, the WRF-Chem3.0 coupled with dust emission scheme is used to model a dust event occurring in western China in March 27—28, 2007 and to present the effect of parameters on the modeled results. The results indicate that the predicted PM10 concentration is very sensitive to soil plastic pressure. p will affect the concentration value, the central place of concentration and the scope. The value of cy just affect the predicted PM10 concentration, whereas not affect the concentration central place and the scope.

Key words: dust prediction, dust emission scheme, sensitive parameters

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