关键词: 黑河, 山区流域, 全球气候变暖, 水资源

Abstract: Based on 50-year hydrologic and meteorological records, the paper has analyzed the characteristics, cause of formation, and trend of water resources change under global warming scene in the Heihe river basin.A model used to calculate runoff change in the mountainous area of the Heihe river basin under various suppositional climate scenes is presented.The results of analysis and calculating show that the response of the water resources change in the mountainous area of the Heihe river basin is quite obvious to global warming, but there is distinct territorial characteristics in change of the water resources in the mountainous area.As a whole, temperature and precipitation in the area all have been presenting an ascending trend along with global warming since 1950s, and the rise range of temperature is larger than that of global temperature rising.Also runoff in the area increase along with precipitation increase, but its range will gradually decrease along with temperature rise.So change of the water resources in the area will be steady as a whole.Although water resources in the area in the future decades will increase or decrease along with the change of temperature and precipitation, but the change ranges generally are less than 10% of the its current quantity except that a extreme "warm-dry" or "cold-humid" climate combination occurs, that is, the ranges of temperature rise and precipitation decrease or the ranges of temperature fall and precipitation increase are synchronously larger.

Key words: the Heihe River, the mountainous area, global warming, water resources