未来气候情景下青藏高原风光发电潜力的时空演变与风险评估

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2026.00145

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原风光资源丰富，是中国重要的清洁能源战略储备基地。然而，气候变暖正显著改变高原风速和太阳辐射等关键气象要素，加剧了风光资源开发的不确定性。加之资源禀赋与人口分布存在空间错配，系统评估未来气候风险格局尤为必要。本研究基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6多模式集合数据，在3种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）下，模拟了青藏高原风能发电潜力（wind power potential，P_wind）与光伏发电潜力（solar power potential，P_solar）的未来长期平均变化，并量化了年内波动性、极端事件及日际急升骤降的多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明：（1）青藏高原风光发电潜力对温室气体排放高度敏感，低排放情景下P_wind下降4.2%、P_solar小幅上升，高排放情景下两者降幅分别达10.9%和2.8%，风电脆弱性更大。（2）排放越高，年内波动性与日际急升骤降频率越强，高排放情景下风电年内波动性增幅达8.6%，急升骤降影响月份从不足半年扩展至全年多数月份；极端事件呈现明显的季节分异，风电极端高发电事件在所有情景下均未发生。（3）风光联合开发可有效缓释单一能源的气候风险。高排放情景下风光耦合使高及极高风险区占比由单一能源的75.1%和69.5%降至4.7%。

关键词: 青藏高原, 风能发电潜力, 太阳能光伏发电潜力, 气候变化, 气候风险

Abstract:

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is endowed with abundant wind and solar resources， serving as a critical strategic reserve base for clean energy in China. However， ongoing climate warming has significantly altered key meteorological factors over the plateau， including wind speed and solar radiation， thereby increasing the uncertainty of wind and solar energy exploitation. Furthermore， the prominent spatial mismatch between resource endowment and population distribution highlights the necessity of systematically evaluating future climatic risk patterns. Based on the multimodel ensemble dataset of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6， this study simulates the long-term future changes of wind power potential （P_wind） and solar power potential （P_solar） across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways （SSPs）. Multiple temporal characteristics are quantitatively assessed， including annual mean trends， intra-annual variability， extreme events， and day-to-day abrupt fluctuations in power potential. The results indicate that：（1） The wind and solar power generation potentials on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are highly sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions. Under the low-emission scenario， P_wind decreases by 4.2% while P_solar increases slightly； under the high-emission scenario， the declines reach 10.9% and 2.8%， respectively， showing greater vulnerability of wind power. （2） Higher emission scenarios lead to stronger intra-annual variability and more frequent day-to-day sharp rise and drop events. Under the high-emission scenario， the intra-annual variability of wind power increases by 8.6%， and the affected months of sharp rise and drop events expand from less than half a year to most months of the year. Extreme events exhibit pronounced seasonal differentiation， and extremely high wind power generation events do not occur under any scenario. （3） Joint wind-solar development can effectively mitigate the climate risks of single energy sources. Under the high-emission scenario， wind-solar coupling reduces the proportion of high and extremely high-risk areas from 75.1% and 69.5% for single energy sources to 4.7%.

Key words: Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, wind power potential, solar power potential, climate change, climatic risk

中图分类号:

TK51

邱梦雨, 张德帅, 杜建会. 未来气候情景下青藏高原风光发电潜力的时空演变与风险评估[J]. 中国沙漠, 2026, 46(5): 285-299.

Mengyu Qiu, Deshuai Zhang, Jianhui Du. Spatiotemporal evolution and risk assessment of wind and solar power generation potential under future climate scenarios on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2026, 46(5): 285-299.

图/表 10

图1 研究区概况注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.1 Overview of the study area

图2 2015—2024年风光发电潜力多年平均值与标准差的空间分布注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of multi-year average wind and photovoltaic power generation potential across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 2015-2024. A indicates multi-year average of wind power generation potential. B indicates standard deviation of wind power generation potential. C indicates multi-year average of solar photovoltaic power generation potential. D indicates standard deviation of solar photovoltaic power generation potential

图3 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原风光发电潜力的长期平均相对变化。A~C为Pwind的年代际相对变化，D~F为Psolar的年代际相对变化，G为Pwind和Psolar的月际相对变化。误差棒表示基于多气候模式（NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）集合模拟结果的标准差，*表示每个变量变化的统计显著性（P<0.05）注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.3 Relative changes in wind power generation potential and solar photovoltaic power generation potential across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different GHG emission scenarios. A-C indicate relative changes in Pwind on the interannual scale. D-F indicate relative changes in Psolar on the interannual scale. G indicates relative changes in Pwind and Psolar on the seasonal scale. Error bars represent the standard deviation in the ensemble estimation of climate forcing based on different NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models. Asterisks （*） indicate the statistical significance of changes in each variable （P<0.05）

图4 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原风光发电潜力年内波动性的相对变化。A~C为Pwind年内波动性的相对变化，D~F为Psolar年内波动性的相对变化。误差棒表示基于多气候模式（NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）集合模拟结果的标准差，*表示每个变量变化的统计显著性（P<0.05）注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.4 Intra-annual relative changes in wind and solar power generation potential on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different future emission scenarios. A-C indicate relative changes in intra-annual variability of Pwind. D-F indicate relative changes in intra-annual variability of Psolar. Error bars represent the standard deviation across the multi-model ensemble （NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）. Asterisks （*） indicate statistical significance of the change （P<0.05）

图5 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原极端发电事件的相对变化。A~C为Pwind极端高发电潜力日频率相对变化，D~F为Psolar极端高发电潜力日频率相对变化，G~I为Pwind极端低发电潜力日频率相对变化，J~L为Psolar极端低发电潜力日频率相对变化注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.5 Relative changes in extreme power generation events across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different future emission scenarios. A-C indicate relative changes in the frequency of days with extremely high wind power generation potential Pwind. D-F indicate relative changes in the frequency of days with extremely high solar power generation potential Psolar. G-I indicate relative changes in the frequency of days with extremely low wind power generation potential Pwind. J-L indicate relative changes in the frequency of days with extremely low solar power generation potential Psolar

图6 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原光能和风能极端发电事件的季节演变趋势。实线表示多模型集合（NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）估计值的均值，阴影区域表示多模型集合估计值的标准差

Fig.6 Evolution trends of intra-annual extreme power generation events of wind and solar energy on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different future emission scenarios. A indicates intra-annual evolution trend of extreme wind power generation events. B indicates intra-annual evolution trend of extreme photovoltaic power generation events. Solid lines represent the mean values estimated by the multi-model ensemble （NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）， and shaded areas indicate the standard deviation of multi-model ensemble estimates

图7 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原风能与太阳能光伏发电潜力日际急升与骤降事件的相对变化。A~C为Pwind急升事件频率相对变化，D~F为Psolar急升事件频率相对变化，G~I为Pwind骤降事件频率相对变化，J~L为Psolar骤降事件频率相对变化注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.7 Relative changes in sharp rise and sharp drop events of wind and solar photovoltaic power generation potential across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different emission scenarios. A-C indicate relative changes in the frequency of sharp rise events for Pwind. D-F indicate relative changes in the frequency of sharp rise events for Psolar. G-I indicate relative changes in the frequency of sharp drop events for Pwind. J-L indicate relative changes in the frequency of sharp drop events for Psolar

图8 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原风能与太阳能光伏发电潜力日际急升与骤降事件频率的相对变化。误差棒表示基于多气候模式（NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）集合模拟结果的标准差，*表示与历史时期相比每个变量相对变化的统计显著性（P<0.05）

Fig.8 Relative changes in the day-to-day fluctuations of wind and solar power generation potential in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different emission scenarios. Error bars represent the standard deviation in ensemble estimates based on climate forcings from different NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models. Asterisks （*） indicate statistical significance of changes in each variable （P<0.05）

图9 未来不同排放情景下青藏高原风能与太阳能以及风光耦合发电潜力的风险区划。A~C为单一风电的风险区划，D~F为单一光电的风险区划，G~I为风光耦合发电的风险区划注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号GS（2023）2767号标准地图制作，底图无修改

Fig.9 Risk regionalization of wind power， solar power， and wind-solar coupled power generation potential across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under different GHG emission scenarios. A-C indicate risk regionalization of standalone wind power. D-F indicate risk regionalization of standalone solar photovoltaic power. G-I indicate risk regionalization of wind-solar coupled power generation

图10 青藏高原人口密度与风光发电潜力及其变化特征的空间关联热图。A为发电潜力，B为发电潜力相对变化，C为极端低发电潜力日频率相对变化，D为年内波动性相对变化。

Fig.10 Spatial correlation heatmaps of population density and wind-solar power generation potential with its changing characteristics in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. A indicates power generation potential. B indicates relative change in power generation potential. C indicates relative change in the frequency of power-deficit days. D indicates relative change in intra-annual variability

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