乡镇尺度绿洲土地利用空间格局动态模拟与分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以新疆三工河流域为研究区，根据历史土地利用变化过程及其主要人文驱动因素——人口、经济、技术和市场，设计参考模式、经济模式和生态模式3种社会经济发展模式模拟未来土地利用数量需求情景，采用CLUE-S模型分别模拟了地方区、兵团区未来土地利用空间格局的演变过程。模拟结果显示：地方区与兵团区Logistic回归的ROC系数均大于0.7，在40 m×40 m栅格粒度除地方区1998年Kappa系数为0.75外，其余均大于0.8，说明CLUE-S模型能够有效模拟干旱区乡镇尺度绿洲的土地利用变化过程，其计算的土地利用空间发生概率是合理的，不同需求情景下的空间动态模拟结果有效性好，可作为区域土地资源可持续利用规划决策的参考依据。

关键词: 三工河流域, 绿洲, CLUE-S模型, 土地利用变化, 空间模拟

Abstract:

Taking Sangong river oasis in Xinjiang as the study area, and considering the history of land-use change process and its major human driving factors such as population, economy, technology and markets, we have designed three socio-economic development modes, which are named as reference, economic, and ecological, to simulate land-use demands of the area in the future. Then, we use the CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial evolution of land-use patterns of the local area and the corps area bases on the land use quantity demands. The results show that: the ROC coefficients of Logistic regression of the two areas are greater than 0.7; all Kappa coefficient is greater than 0.8 when the grid scales is 40 m×40 m, except it is 0.75 of local area in 1998. It means that the CLUE-S model can simulate land-use change process at township scale effectively, and its replace probability of land use are reasonable, and the spatial dynamic simulation of the different demands are efficacious, it can be used to supervise sustainable use of land resources and as a decision-making reference for planning.

Key words: Sangong river basin, oasis, the CLUE-S model, land use change, spatial simulation

中图分类号:

F323.211

尹昌应;罗格平;汤发树;. 乡镇尺度绿洲土地利用空间格局动态模拟与分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(1): 68-75.

YIN Chang-ying;LUO Ge-ping;TANG Fa-shu;. Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Oasis Land Use Spatial Pattern at Town-Scale [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(1): 68-75.

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