Abstract:

With the demographic transformation and increased mobility in China， population shrinking has emerged as a new norm. However， under varying boundary conditions， there exist phase differences in shrinking patterns. From a dual-dimensional perspective （county and county seat）， this study investigates 160 counties （districts） in the upper reaches of the Yellow River as the research unit. Using the shrinking degree model， it explores the spatiotemporal characteristics of population shrinking and examines the influencing factors. The findings reveal that： （1）From a single-dimensional perspective， between 2001 and 2020， 89 counties （55.6%） experienced shrinking phenomena， predominantly mild or long-term stable shrinking. During the same period， 141 counties （89.94%） exhibited shrinking， primarily characterized by short-term and intermittent shrinking， which contrasts sharply with the shrinking observed at the county level. The Liupan Mountain contiguous poverty-stricken area and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia are the primary regions where shrinking occurs in both counties and county seats， demonstrating a pronounced spatial lock-in effect. （2）From a two-dimensional perspective， shrinking is predominantly one-dimensional. Specifically， the shrinking of county areas coupled with the growth of county towns dominates， indicating that while populations in county areas decline， the concentration in county towns increases. Two-dimensional shrinking （county shrinking-county town shrinking） is exceedingly rare and exhibits intermittent and short-term characteristics， occurring as an overlay on the foundation of long-term stable county shrinking. （3）From a two-dimensional perspective， there is a significant positive correlation in the spatial dynamics of population changes in counties and county seats. Two-dimensional growth areas clearly align with the core zones of the three major urban agglomerations， whereas two-dimensional shrinking types are concentrated in the pure pastoral regions of eastern Inner Mongolia. （4）Population shrinking results from the combined influence of demographic and socio-economic factors， with GDP and income levels serving as key variables. From a two-dimensional perspective， population shrinking is prevalent but remains relatively mild across the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Two-dimensional shrinking represents an isolated phenomenon occurring in specific localities or time periods and has not yet led to severe consequences.

Key words: two-dimensional perspective, population shrinking, spatio-temporal characteristics, influencing factors, upper reaches of the Yellow River