关键词: 沙尘暴, 趋势, Markov模型, 腾格里沙漠

Abstract: From the angle of probability, the Markov Model has been applied to analyze the variation trend of sand-dust storms occurred in the southeastern Tengger Desert during the recent 20 years. The results show that the probabilities of the strong and the extreme-strong sand-dust storms should be 0.5 individually in 2000, which is near the actually happened times of 11 in this year. In 2000, the probability of the extreme-strong sand-dust storms accompanied with precipitation was 0.25, while that of without precipitation was 0.5, which was in accordance with the fact that few sand-dust storms with precipitation happened in dry northern China in this year. If the time-series are long enough the Markov Model can be effectively used to predicting the happening of the sand-dust storms.

Key words: sand-dust storm, trend, Markov Model, Tengger Desert