img

官方微信

高级检索

中国沙漠 ›› 2005, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 869-873.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑河莺落峡站年径流长期预报模型研究

楚永伟1, 蓝永超2, 李向阳1, 张耀南2, 胡兴林3, 刘进琪3   

  1. 1. 黄河水利委员会黑河流域管理局, 甘肃兰州 730030;
    2. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃兰州 730000;
    3. 甘肃省水文水资源勘测局, 甘肃兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2005-03-15 修回日期:2005-07-26 出版日期:2005-12-20 发布日期:2005-12-20
  • 作者简介:楚永伟(1963-),男(汉族),陕西高陵人,高级工程师,主要从事水资源管理工作。E-mail:yongweichu@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院知识创新工程主要方向项目(KZCX3-SW229和INF-105-SDB-1-21)资助

Models for Long-term Forecast of Annual Runoff at Yin Lou-xia Station of Heihe River

CHU Yong-wei1, LAN Yong-chao2, LI Xiang-yang1, ZHANG Yao-nan2, HU Xing-lin3, LIU Jin-qi3   

  1. 1. Heihe Basin Administrative Office of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee, Lznzhou 730030, China;
    2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Gansu Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2005-03-15 Revised:2005-07-26 Online:2005-12-20 Published:2005-12-20

摘要: 通过分析黑河莺落峡站出山径流变化规律,并将年径流系列按照频率25%及75%为界,划分成3种情况:即多水年xi > 55.0,中水年42.1≤xi≤55.0,小水年xi < 42.1。计算其状态转移概率得出:年径流过程从某一状态转移至其他状态的可能性都有,但其转移概率的最大值达81.8%。由此可知,年径流的变化过程不仅有随机性,而且有很强的相依性。通过多年对站年径流预报工作的实践,经过各种方法的比较检验,认为建立前期大气环流因子与年平均流量的预报模型和建立年平均流量的时间序列组合模型,其逐年预报的精度较高,经过误差评定分析,两个模型均为甲级方案,检验预报时性能较稳定,能对莺落峡站年平均流量进行有效预报,为黑河流域调水提供技术支撑。

关键词: 径流预报, 模型研究, 黑河

Abstract: Having analyzed the changing regularity of out-mountainous runoff at the Yin Luo-xia station on the Heihe River, we took frequency 25% and 75% of annual flow as dividing standards and classified the runoff series into three types: high-flow year with xi > 55.0, moderate-flow year with 42.1 ≤ xi ≤ 55.0, and low-flow year with xi < 42.1.The calculated shifting frequency showed that annual flow has all sorts of possibility from a state to another state, but the largest shifting frequency reached 81.8%.It can be known that the changing processes of annual flow are random and dependent as well.Forecasting practice and model comparing test all proved that there are two models: the model of annual runoff based on prophase atmospheric current factors and the model of annual runoff time series, which have high forecasting accuracy and stable capability.The models can provide technological support for water adjustment of Heihe River.

Key words: runoff forecast, modeling study, Heihe River

中图分类号: