关键词: 生态风险评价, 灰色系统, 风险值, 绿洲, 盐渍化风险

Abstract: Ecological risk analysis is a new marginal subject which studies issues on risk theory,modern ecology and environmental science, etc. Currently, quantitative assessing and integrative study of ecological risk is a significant issue in the world. This paper tries to work out a simple assessment method as to single risk source, i.e. salinization risk, based on the systematic study of its basic properties and the maneuverability of ecological risk. Applying the gray system theory in risk assessment, a useful risk assessment model is designed. A case study shows how to calculate the ecological risk. The result is as follows: among the 25 sample areas chosen in the oasis, areas of the greatest salinization risk is 8%, greater risk is 20%, average risk is 44%, while least risk is 28%. The first 2 kinds are those areas needing meliorating. The result can be used as a basis in resolving the salinization risk in the oasis.

Key words: ecological risk assessment, Grey System, risk value, Oasis, salinization risk