Variation of main climatic elements and climate production potential in Hexi Corridor during 1960-2022

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2024.00022

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6): 14-25.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2024.00022

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Variation of main climatic elements and climate production potential in Hexi Corridor during 1960-2022

Jun Li¹^,²(), Fayuan Zhou¹^,³, Liang Jiao²(), Kaiming Li¹, Chaocan Li³

^1.College of Urban Environment，Lanzhou City University，Lanzhou 730070，China
^2.Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis，Northwest Normal University，Lanzhou 730070，China
^3.College of Environmental and Municipal Engineering，Tianjin Chengjian University，Tianjin 300384，China

Received:2023-11-16 Revised:2024-01-31 Online:2024-11-20 Published:2024-12-06
Contact: Liang Jiao

Abstract

Abstract:

The Hexi Corridor is a key region for economic crop production in Gansu Province， and also an important grain production base in China. In order to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the main climatic elements and climate production potential in this region under the background of global climate change， and to clarify the patterns of change in climate production potential， this study utilized annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2022， collected from 20 counties and districts in the Hexi Corridor. The climate production potential of the Hexi Corridor was estimated using the Miami model， Thornthwaite Memorial model， and Liebig's law of the minimum factor. The spatial-temporal variation characteristics of climate elements and climate production potential were also analyzed. Furthermore， future climate changes and related production potential in the Hexi Corridor were projected using CMIP6 model data， under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways （SSPs） including SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， SSP3-7.0， and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate that the average temperature in the Hexi Corridor has shown an overall increasing trend， while the average precipitation has shown an overall decreasing trend over the past 63 years. Under the combined influence of precipitation， topography， and altitude differences， the temperature and potential evapotranspiration have shown an increasing trend， with the temperature potential exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of gradually decreasing from north to south. However， the precipitation， and standard climate production potential have shown a decreasing trend， with low values concentrated in the northern desert area. Under the four projected scenarios， the climatic types in the southern high-altitude oasis zones and the northern near-desert regions respectively show trends towards "warm-wetting" and "warm-drying" developments.

Key words: annual average temperature, annual precipitation, climate potential productivity, spatial-temporal characteristics, Hexi Corridor

CLC Number:

Jun Li, Fayuan Zhou, Liang Jiao, Kaiming Li, Chaocan Li. Variation of main climatic elements and climate production potential in Hexi Corridor during 1960-2022[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2024, 44(6): 14-25.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 Overview of the Hexi Corridor

Fig.2 Inter-annual changes of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.3 Wavelet cycle changes of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.4 Wavelet variance of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.5 Abrupt change analysis of average annual temperature and precipitation in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.7 Inter-annual changes of temperature， precipitation， evaporation and standard climatic potential productivity in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.8 Abrupt change analysis of climate production potential in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.9 Spatial distribution of potential climate productivity and its climatic trend rate in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Fig.10 Spatial distribution maps of the standard climate production potential and water-heat ratio in the Hexi Corridor from 1960 to 2022

Table 1 Rate of change in climate production potential in the Hexi Corridor under climate change scenarios

气温 /℃	降水量/%
	-20		-10		0		10		20
	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5
-2	-16.28	-16.47	-10.65	-10.45	-5.88	-5.29	-1.84	-0.88	1.59	2.91
-1	-14.13	-14.57	-8.04	-8.13	-2.84	-2.56	1.61	2.26	5.41	6.42
0	-12.16	-12.84	-5.63	-5.98	0.00	0.00	4.85	5.21	9.04	9.75
1	-10.34	-11.24	-3.39	-3.98	2.66	2.40	7.92	8.00	12.49	12.92
2	-8.66	-9.76	-1.30	-2.12	5.16	4.64	10.82	10.63	15.78	15.93
气温 /℃	降水量/%
	-20		-10		0		10		20
	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5
-2	-16.36	-16.27	-10.33	-10.27	-5.17	-5.12	-0.74	-0.71	3.06	3.08
-1	-14.52	-14.45	-8.08	-8.03	-2.50	-2.48	2.31	2.31	6.48	6.46
0	-12.82	-12.76	-5.97	-5.95	0.00	0.00	5.21	5.18	9.75	9.70
1	-11.25	-11.20	-4.01	-4.00	2.35	2.34	7.95	7.90	12.86	12.79
2	-9.80	-9.76	-2.19	-2.18	4.56	4.53	10.54	10.48	15.82	15.73

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Variation of main climatic elements and climate production potential in Hexi Corridor during 1960-2022

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