西北地区气候因素对沙尘暴影响的模型研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候因素是沙尘暴形成的必要条件之一，建立适合于西北地区衡量气候因素对沙尘暴影响的定量模型极为重要。在前人的沙尘天气模型基础上，强调在西北地区利用温度、降水量、蒸发量综合考虑地区水分均衡来计算干燥指数，并与大风日数和风速计算的风速影响指数共同建立新的沙尘暴气候影响指数模型。将模型实际应用于新疆、青海、甘肃、陕西、宁夏和内蒙古等西北6省区，利用6省区1961—1980年的气象资料进行回归分析，结果表明,气候影响指数D和沙尘暴日数S之间具有良好的相关性。并选取1981—2005年陕西、甘肃和内蒙古3地气象资料计算的沙尘暴日数预测值与3省区的实际值作比较，发现模型拟合程度较好，且在揭示气候影响因子对沙尘暴影响作用方面，效果较为显著。

关键词: 西北, 沙尘暴, 气候因素, 干燥度, 模型

Abstract: The climate factor is one of the necessary conditions to cause a dust storm. It is important to set up a quantitative model about the influence of climate factors on the dust storms in Northwest. On the bases of the former models, the aridity index I here is calculated according to temperature, precipitation, evaporating capacity, taking water balance of the region into account. Then, the wind velocity index W is calculated by days of strong wind and wind velocity. Lastly, a new model of climate index D is set up on the basis I and W. The model is applied to the six provinces in Northwest: Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, of which the meteorologic data from the year 1961 to 1980 are used. There is a close correlation between D and dust storm occurrence rate:S. The predictive value of S for Shanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia is calculated by the meteorologic data from the year 1981 to 2005. Comparison between predictive and actual values of S for the three provinces showed that the model is effective in evaluating the climate influence on dust storm days.

Key words: Northwest, dust storm, climate factor, aridity index, model

中图分类号:

P461

李智勇. 西北地区气候因素对沙尘暴影响的模型研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(3): 415-420.

LI Zhi-yong. Model Study of Influence of Climate Factors on Dust Storm in Northwest China[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(3): 415-420.

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