基于改进型垂直干旱指数的塔里木河流域绿洲与荒漠区干旱时空变化对比

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00057

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2001-2013年8天合成MODIS A1时间序列数据计算改进型垂直干旱指数（MPDI），应用趋势性分析、重标极差（R/S）分析等方法研究了塔里木河流域绿洲与荒漠区干旱时空变化状况及其可能原因。结果表明：在过去13年，塔里木河流域绿洲与荒漠区总体呈湿润趋势，绿洲稳中转湿，湿润趋势较明显且幅度较大；而荒漠区相对稳定，湿润趋势相对较小。绿洲与荒漠大部分地区未来变化趋势与过去13年变化趋势呈现较高的一致性。塔里木河干流上游、中游部分地区、尉犁县部分灌区等区域出现持续性干旱迹象，应引起相关管理部门的重视。

关键词: 塔里木河, 绿洲, 荒漠, MPDI, R/S分析

Abstract: Based on a regression analysis and Hurst index method,this study calculated the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI) from 2001 to 2013 to investigated the spatial-temporal characteristics of droughts over oasis and desert of Tarim basin by using 8-day combined MODIS A1 dataset.The main results indicate that:both oasis and desert tend to be wetter.The oasis became wetter than before,and the amplitude of this trend over oasis is relatively larger than that over desert which is much more stable.According to the results of spatial distribution and statistical results of Hurst,the future trend seems to be consistent with the last 13 years.It is should be noted that some regions,such as the upstream region and midstream region of Tarim,the southeastern parts of irrigated area in Yuli county,show a persistent drier trend.The water resources management department and other relevant departments should pay more attention on such phenomenon.

Key words: Tarim River, oasis, desert, MPDI, R/S analysis

中图分类号:

P462.3

郭浩, 古丽·加帕尔, 包安明, 罗敏. 基于改进型垂直干旱指数的塔里木河流域绿洲与荒漠区干旱时空变化对比[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(4): 775-783.

Guo Hao, Jiapaer Guli, Bao Anming, Luo Min. MPDI-based Comparison on Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought over Oasis and Desert in Tarim Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(4): 775-783.

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